Forecast: Thundering Cloudbreak
It’s not just Hawaii’s position in the middle of the North Pacific that guarantees it big swell all winter. It’s also assisted by a conveyor belt of cold air coming off the Siberian Shield mixing with the warm water of the Japan Current that establishes a constant supply of storms that stall in the northwest Pacific, deepen, and then aim long-period swell towards Hawaii.
There’s much more ocean in the southern hemisphere, more room for storms to develop, however without land masses to influence the low pressure systems, the storms tend to be more diffuse; they can form anywhere within the band called the Roaring Forties - and that’s a lot of ocean.
It’s why surf forecasters look for other features that influence low pressure systems. It helps them anticipate how they’ll behave.
Most recently, the Long Wave Trough (LWT) has been the key to predicting storms in the southern hemisphere. When the LWT is in position it can direct swell towards a coastline much the same way that Hawaiian storms are cultivated.
Of course, unlike land masses, the LWT is always moving so it’s only periodical, however it explains why swells often happen in ‘clusters’ in the southern hemisphere. If one storm follows the LWT then the subsequent storms will too.
One of those clusters is happening right now below Australia and the swells being created will be of Hawaiian proportions.
Kohl Christenson, Hawaiian size, South Pacific perfection (Stu Gibson)
For the last week a node of the LWT has been aimed up the Tasman Sea, meaning any available low pressure systems have followed that trajectory. And, as it happens, there’s been many available lows so every exposed coastline from eastern Australia, to New Caledonia, Fiji, and the west coast of NZ has been fixed to a south swell regime.
The last week saw three separate spikes of swell move up the Tasman Sea hitting Cloudbreak between 6-10 feet. Although each swell was relatively strong they were hampered for various reasons, either forming too far west and being shadowed by Tasmania, or too far east and partially blocked by NZ, or the storm weakened as it moved up the Tasman.
Andrew Jacobson at Cloudbreak yesterday
At any rate, it’s all so many lemons against the pie that will be Cloudbreak this weekend.
Over the last two days, two very large storms have been skirting the polar ice shelf below Australia and the first has now begun tracing the LWT path which currently lies dead centre of the Tasman Sea, meaning the storm won’t be obstructed by Tassie or NZ (see following image).
At present, surface winds of 40knts are blowing over 2,000 kms of ocean with the intensity expected to last another 24 hours as the front projects high into the Tasman. It’s then due to hit Fiji Friday afternoon, pushing towards 12 feet+ by dark and easing from 10-12 feet Saturday morning. Winds will be light SE trades as Fiji enjoys a low ebb in the tradewind cycle.
Yet there’s more pie to come…
Late tomorrow the second low pressure system skirting the ice shelf will begin following the LWT corridor up the Tasman. It’s a similar size as the previous storm, similar position too, though it's of greater intensity. By Wednesday morning, surface winds of 50knts will be blowing over 2,000 kms of ocean with smaller tracts of 55knts - all aimed northeast towards Fiji.
Much like the previous system, these winds will endure as the storm moves up the Tasman creating a captured fetch scenario compounding swell height. The second system will also be assisted by an active sea state created by the passing of the preceding storm.
So then, size? Whew...thought you’d never ask.
All the elements are in place for a very memorable swell: a broad system of high intensity and long duration taking true aim at Fiji. There’s nothing to warrant being overly cautious (natural caution always being assumed) so I’d expect sets either side of 15 feet to begin hitting Cloudbreak late on Sunday, with a levelling out around 12-15 feet on Monday morning.
The early approach of this swell matches other significant Fijian swells of recent times: the Scardy swell of 2010, Kohl Christenson swell 2011, Volcom Pro 2012, and Aaron Gold’s flatline swell of 2016. In fact, the latter was beset by strong trades while on Sunday afternoon the trades should lay right down due to a passing trough. By Monday morning light SE trades will again blow.
By next week the LWT will shift east meaning low pressure systems wont be steered up the Tasman, thus ending the cluster of Hawaiian-like swells for the Fijian reefs.
Comments
That wave of Kohl’s has to be one of the all time great paddle in waves and all time great photos. Simply amazing
Isn't it? Trying to think where I heard a story about that wave - Thundercloud, maybe? - how he was way deep on the ledge and it was early in the set, so if he blew the drop he was gonna surface to the mother of all thrashings after it.
And Kohl was on the roof of the Mark Healy board wave. He tried to paddle into but couldn't get it
gday mate,, exciting article! hey mate I'm from yallingup and was thinking of heading to lennox for a surf/family trip for a few weeks mid june,, is it possible to forecast the LWT for that period as it seems like a good indicator to get some swell on the northern nsw coasts.. nothing worse than a flat spell on your annual holiday!! thanks in advance
No vest too
My vote goes to Reef MacIntosh @ 3:48 in 2012...and the following empty. Off the hook.
To be honest they're all bloody impressive.
Seconded and honourable mention, John John's same sesh.
Scardys too (coupla years before, not sure when?)
Fark, they're all pretty good. Get a more photogenic wave than Cloudbreak.
I agree , especially when you find out the boards was a 7 2 , when everybody else was riding rhino chasers .
Probably biased as I was watching live , Parko got what looked like one of the best barrels and as he flicked off , Reef was just freefalling into the one behind...he reckons because he had double foiled Tow fins made out of G10 , it was the fastest he has ever been , and he felt like he was hanging in by the tip of his fins!
My vote goes to john john 2012
Volcom pro !
No vest no worries; )
.
Ryan Hipwood 2012 wave is epic too.
Kinda nice to have the ski's active in the zone just in case things go a bit pear shaped
or the MUTHA of all WIDE-ies looms ... wash thru ! DETONATES !.
Hope for a few of these.
god i wish Healey was in position for that
That thing is nuts
it was biiig tonight in nz
And not even the swell from the front has hit yet.
lemon next to the pie hey!
Ramon Navarro.
Ramon has Gary's vote.
He also rode the best wave on the day in Gary's opinion.
My vote too. The story of how he ended up there is great too.
Wonder if Kelly will be there..........bet he is.
Yep he probably will be. He was in Fiji last week. Foots fine when the surf is pumping and only trouble if it means heading to a event he doesn't like or has no chance of winning. If the WSL was a serious sport there is no way he could pull this shit. Surf the founders cup and then not surf Braz because if injury.
I vote all swells get posthumously named whoever rode the best wave!
Fantastic idea.
Can we do this on a hyper-local, very-average level? The dandandan swell of Park Beach last Tuesday morning? That waist high bomb was talk of the lineup for at least 30 seconds.
Latest model upgrades have slightly slowed the core fetch for the main swell due late Sun/Mon. It looks phenomenal.
I have a feeling it'll be as big as the Volcom Pro swell.
Still slightly tricky winds, but if anything it's a positive as there's a local trough nearby which should result in mainly variable conditions (rather than gusty trades) which is more beneficial. Might see an average period or two as the winds temporarily swung N/NE but at least it won't be blown out light most XXL Fijian swells.
I'd expect all flights to be booked out soon!
Holy shit!
Been here since sat. Saturday was perfect, Sunday very good but seriously solid. Monday clearly bigger( I sat in the peanut gallery) Glad I’m outta here on Thursday before this next swell arrives. Cloudbreak is an absolutely incredible wave. Not sure I’ll ever feel completely comfortable out there at size. There are lots of surfers that catch no waves and go back to the boat with tails between there legs. Then there are the guys that sit and wait out back and have surfed plenty of reef breaks. The whole ocean moves out there. Not a normal wave and an absolute beast. I love it and it terrifies me.
Ha...that's spot on...it's the only wave in the world I've surfed where I paddled in and never even attempted to catch a wave. Remember sitting way wide and thinking to duck in and catch a smaller/medium one but the longer I sat there the more I realised I was way under gunned even for that. You're so right...it's a different but beautiful beast.
Good post mate^^^
Surfed some of the best waves of my life there back in 2011 and also copped some decent oceanic abuse. It's amazing how the ocean can make you feel so insignificant like nothing else can and Cloudbreak's fucken good at that!
I have been over to Fiji and surfed CB alot. I never feel comfortable out there especially on a rising swell. I reckon it is one wave that could kill you if you are in the wrong spot.
One year we were out there and the swell went from 3-4ft at lunch time to 6-8 with the odd 10fter by 2pm. The ocean felt electric and needless to say I was back in the boat shaking like a leaf after just making it over a wide set breaking into Babs. A couple of clubbies from Sydney were there, in there late 30's early 40's and were charging it......until a rouge 10ft set came through. One of the clubbies took the drop on the first wave, slipped off is board at the bottom of the wave, proceeded to get the lip on the back and he was gone. I mean we didn't see him until he popped up way down the reef and had taken a two wave hold down and he was fucked. The tav lifeguards got to him and he couldn't move his arms or legs and had taken in alot of water...but was alive. Had to be air vac out. Was way heavy. Not sure if he made a full recovery but after seeing that I hold alot of respect for the place.
Good luck to anyone heading up!!!
must have been Mike Vargas from the Last Long Drop
Got to second that. A mate and I went in '92 as fresh-faced ignorami and weren't quite prepared for a stormy 6-8ft+ with 3 of us out. Looked ok, so he skipped off the boat out the back, copped a set on the head and came back to the boat white as a ghost after talking to the fish. We took it a bit more seriously after that. And how's the bloody current pulling you back into the impact zone when the wide sets come.....faaaaark noooooooooooo.
Great write up too Stu
Pat Gudang
Go Son !
Can someone stream it live!? Surely it will get more hits than the WSL usually pull.
I’m wondering how difficult this is? I mean, you can stream live from a phone right, so long as there’s reception. You just need multiple batteries, a boat, and a hat. There’s a business idea for you Ben, and I’m your man. I’ve got the time, some experience with photography, a willingness to “work” for free, and access to very cheap last minute flights. I’m serious, haha... this could be swellnets new thing!
great idea.
It’s not as easy as you think. Aside from our live surfcam network, I’ve also done a lot of event webcasting over the years - we were one of the first companies to undertake remote event webcasting via 3G (we did the ONeill Cold Water Classic events in Tasmania, New Zealand and Scotland - twice, plus tons of other events).
Remember, live webcasting from an iPhone sucks.
Fair enough. That was the unknown bit for me really. Better technology just brings bigger headaches. I get it. If you ever want to give it a run, I reckon the idea has good potential. You’d have to train me up on the equipment and cover it with insurance. Your real employees might have the most reason to protest though. I’ve done a week in Teahupoo before, total cost was $800
TERRIBLE IDEA. Ha Ha!
.
A big ugly bumpy bomb on Nathan Florence insta...is that Cloudbreak ?
Tough Effort ....Faark !
restaurants anyone?
I’ve surfed solid -big G land , and it intimidated me and I loved it all in one. So much ocean movement ,energy and power . I would be interested to know how cloud break compares to it in the sphincter tightening stakes. ? Any experienced comparisons ? I’m talking about 8+ft range not massive cloud break.
Yeah Cloudbreak wins in my opinion. A committed takeoff out there when it looks like the next 100m of wave is standing up and coming down is very intimidating. I’d say heavier and I’ve never felt at gland like the ocean was mowing me down which is a regular at size at cb. A caught inside and wash around past the tower is the full experience
Was at G-land in 2016 for the "Hobgood swell"super south and holding.Damien and C.J were frothing comparing it to a cross between Cloudbreak and Restaurants I think they would have a good opinion on the subject .$25000 later<iframe width="560" height="315" src="
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Similar, I think......but I think CB is gnarlier for two reasons.
One, it's right out in the middle of the ocean so you have an open ocean feeling of intimidation and abandonment.
And two, when the sets come at CB each one has a tendency to break wider on the reef. Wider and heavier. That puts you in the heaviest situations both choosing and positioning for a wave and if you get caught inside you will cry for your mammy.
Getting washed up on the reef there is a world of pain too.
Cheers Fellas.
yep, its still on my bucket list of waves to surf. Hopefully sooner rather than later.
Was wonderIng when someone was going to pin their colours to the flag and call it ON. Great write up, I’m salivating!
Can't wait to see the video.
Only the start of the storm generating Sunday/Monday's swell, south-west of Tassie but core winds are already 50kt.
Could this be the swell where Mark Visser ejects himself from a cargo plane attached to a jetski and parachute?
Please Mark, if you are still out there bluffing the naive with this crap then its probably time to put up or shut up.
He's been there all week getting his share
I'd go with CB as the scarier due to the volume of the playing field. Open ocean, way more random positioning of swells and much larger sections of ocean moving. Having said that, I've had worse beatings at GLand but that's probably due to having a lot more time there than CB and getting myself into heavier situations. As I mentioned above, when CB got serious I ran for cover...haha!
Great writeup and thanks to all relaying what it's like out there. A neighbour watched that 15ft swell some years back from the channel and came home saying it was like a wonder of the world.
Spent last night youtubing it at size, is there anything like it for barrelyness and length and power when that big?
lets all hope someone catches all the highlights, lowlights and serious beat-downs that are going to go down. Would be epic watching from the boat!!
That's a mighty ASCAT pass.
I can picture a few hundred NZ surfers getting excited.
(Wouldn't let me delete, Inzider)
Shoosh island bay shoosh
The internet has fucked so many NZ spots, why keep the ball rolling and help infest a once semi secret spot with even more carcasses.
Inzider, I thought that reference was both cryptic enough if you didn't know, and redundant to the hordes probably on the way before reading it.
But to err on the side of caution, I shall get rid of it :-)
Definitely cryptic enough for this site but just saying that spot you are speaking of was largely unknown for a long long time. Look what the ultimate waterman did for exposing dunnos.
The chitter chatter starts somewhere. Years ago we had sweet taties ravaged by the net and now when it breaks theres forty cars. No offence
Yeah? Didn't know it was that popular. I live in a bubble of semi obscure off-broadway breaks.
Hardly that obscure these days. Pretty big in rags tonight. Nearly everyone has headed north.....hmmm....might go south in the morning
To big for this coast
It wasn't the internet bro .......
Any idea when the swell train will arrive? looking more likely sunday than monday?maybe?
A while back wasn’t someone proposing crowd funding to send Camel over to Fiji?! This would be the swell.
I'd pony up some $$ to see Camel straightline CB on a Desert Storm. I'm all for vicarious pleasures - and helping out.
TimBonython......your Shout.
Man that wave of Ramon's was so hectic! superbly surfed and you could see he was ecstatic when he kicked out. Wave of a lifetime. cheers freeride
Whilst not a comparable size, Owen wright man handling the place back in 2015 at the ct event was the best thing I’ve ever seen. Can watch replays of that over and over and over......
This afternoon 10-12ft, with a two very large bigger set waves around 4pm.
All star crew assembling for Sunday.
Is Fanning there ?
It begins...
Today started off 4-6 ft then slowly increased in size. By this evening the swell started to show some energy. Here is @deepwatersurf testing some equipment at Cloudbreak just before dark. @fijimarriottresortmomibay @tourismfiji @wailoaloaboardriders
A post shared by Daniel Russo (@_danielrusso_) on
who's the surfer Stu?
Kohl Christensen
right, big wave.
Oh Yeah...are the sets going to be a third bigger on the peak of the swell...Ben.. Craig ?
Sunday arvo/Monday morning's swell will be bigger.
A cruel peak overnight but late Sunday with easing winds could be insane.
Winds an issue for Monday morning.
Ahhh bugger
Many with 9'0s will be undergunned.
Crikey that's a big wave. And the next swell will be much bigger!
Thing is.. just cast your eye over the entire ocean basin from the Solomons to Vanuatu, New Caledonia, the Fijian Islands then Samoa and Western Polynesia.
Golly.. there'll be some epic unridden waves over the next few days.
ok so what are we calling size on that shot above??/ im saying 15ft......thoughts anyone........fuk maybe Kellys wants to be remembered for the great surfer he is /was..... shame its not televised live ......
What boards will Kelly have in his Quiver
Which Shapers Guns does he ride when its Huge ?
Prolly a 5'11" Cymatic.
Biggest day in raglan for the last 12 months today. Massive long period swell marching north towards Fiji. No one can get out
Bloody hell.
pooman how is your fellow country man going out there in his kayak
jeezus christ what a mission..paddle all day bunk down for some sleep and get pushed 20k nth off course overnight ...
Hey Udo, haven't heard about that one. Who is it? The whole west coast has been solid all week but today is massive
Scott Donaldson - left Coffs Harbour bound for NZ a few weeks ago hit some large seas around Lord Howe..sat it out for a few days on the Island and left again into this swell and has been paddling into theses seas for days now moving around 1.5 to 2 knts - He has a website with Tracking on it.
Its his second attempt..last one had to be rescued 80 ks short of touching Kiwi sand
Surely you'd do it in the September/October time of year?
Wonder why he chose to head out with such an active southerly swell pattern bearing down?
Tony Bullimores love child ?
I wonder if he could get that kayak to plane on those lumps?
Would help if he was headed to New Caledonia.
Hope has a GoPro on board filming this mission
And whoever his Forecaster is that gave him go ahead to leave Lord Howe into this system needs a grilling !
Edit : Bob McDavitt NZ weather Guru ! ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12059252
I wouldn't want to be out in such an active ocean but you can follow progress here.
https://tasmankayak.com/tracking/
That wave of Kohl C shown above led to a two wave hold down after he pulled in.
Laurie Towner was on the wave behind.
Footage on Lozza insta
well its gonna be something like this supposedly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=69&v=fFCqK3otv74
Backhand on a sup.
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First waves this morning are so big they're towing already.
Seems to be from this morning.
They were towing last night too.
Saving themselves? Fatigue from a big week of waves?
Swellnets man on the ground there says its 20ft !!!
So is it bigger than the volcom swell in his opinion?
Lets see some footy!
Swell not meant to peak until later today or overnight. So there's more to come!
Looks as big as big as the volcom pro swell already.
Can't imagine what it will look like later. Holy shit.
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No Link LD.
one palm media insta
Hell of a Wave !
Yeh I tried to edit but Swellnet keeps saying unexpected error , try again. After the captcha stuff. Can't embed for some reason.
Try these links.
Looks 20 foot and perfect.
Is anyone even out at restaurants?
https://instagram.com/p/BjQohZKHyiD/
And more cloudbreak. They're saying that's Kelly but the cameras on a wave with a goofy.
https://instagram.com/p/BjQ_4wrh7fG/
My fooooot! It's so sore. Waaah, waaah.
Watching these little clips drip feed out makes you realise how amazing it was volcom kept the live feed going last time.
Alex gray for footage as well on insta..its official then, cloudbreak the best wave in the world?
The best 15-20ft wave.
Would be personal preference for waves sub 10ft.
Ramon got a bomb like that one that went unridden last time......
Largest wave ever ridden at cloudbreak, some have been claiming...
Where can we see it?
owen milne media - Insta - from today
Cost him $20,000 to get the there for 2012 swell..from some footage i can see, can see why people tow too now..whoah!!
Ramon...
F$%k me that is seriously next level. I am sure if they had a live feed to this it would of shamed the WSL broadcast
Wow.
No way......
Holy guacamole, that’s fu king riiiiiichter
dont know what to say, that wave fried my brain. and pasrt of that juice hitting here in the Sols early AM. going to be hectic.
thanks for posting Stu! keep the Cloudbreak stuff coming !!!
Yeah, next few days will pump, Kavachi.
You in Gizo or further south?
Gatokae. other end of W Prov from Gizo. trades are steady 10+ knots tho , so its gonna be a bumpy tow sesh at best. lot of water moving already this evening. stick your head underwater can hear the coral shearing off and the tinkling as it rolls around. heavy water
Great stuff! Reminiscent of the Healey interview in 'Thundercloud' after he bailed under that wave in 2012 where he described all the old sediment and dead coral being drawn up from the depths after it passed overhead. Special swells.
Hope you get a break in the trades.
How's this beast? Being claimed as possibly biggest ever surfed @ CB
https://instagram.com/p/BjRY039AZ1O/
That looks like Florida Sooky Foot giving him the Double Fist Claim
Just incredible, the most insane XXL wave there is! Nutty.
just cant stop watching that clip, soooo much going on. how's that spit that shoots past him?!! and the size of that foamball.......go the Chilean Captain Goodvibes
Florida sooky foot. Best name ever
Caio Vaz coming a'gutser...
Ouch..42 hrs of travelling then that .
All worth if for a hi-res, window-sized print of shot 2.
Frame that sucker and wake to it every day.
Yes ..Wicked ...Hows the arm positions.
Geez sort of looks 'crowded' in that photo......
Most of the backhand paddlers grabbing the rail off take off aren't they?
In the name of the great footy commentator already woooowweee..can't wait to see the finish..holy sheet
Thoughz tow line up shots almost look like the ultimate 25ft wave pool
How much bigger did it get ben ? Overnight what do you reckon
What was the peak etcetera ?
Unfortunately, there's no way to know without a physical buoy off the coast.
So is it safe to say that waves like Ramons and the one Healey had to swim under a few years ago are un-paddleable?
Watching the pulled back clip of Ramons it looks incredibly difficult to see how a 8'0 or 9'0 board would fit into the curve of that wave on the take off
I'm not confident answering that. Reckon few people are.
Remember when Jaws was un-paddleable?
Yeah true ld,
But id say the majority of Jaws waves are still capable of giving you an entry before it goes square, even the humungous Aaron Gold ones he managed to get in early-ish.
Fiji seems to me to be more like Teahupoo once its at the size of Ramons wave, and too be honest i cant see anyone paddling a bomb at Chopes when they start going square. Although I'd be happy to be proven wrong!
Would have thought RCJ been there for this ?
RCJ and big backhand barrels?
Not sure I've seen it before.
Ol Baldy was riding a Al Merrick / Old Favorite Stored at Tavarua ?
Like to know who Rode what ..Shaper.. lengths Etc
Ben there is a physical buoy !
https://www.pacgeo.org/static/wavebuoy/#
4.91m @ 17s , peak at 11pm
* Although I havent used this site before ive been told by the person who provided this info
Awesome Cam, here's the two swells!
Amazing data..
Craig , thanks for printing that here
(so you can expertly decipher the graph dna code?).
Correct me if I'm wrong please.
The first swell was also a peak spike during the night too ? Almost as big ( but lesser peroid ?)
And the 2nd swell peaked at 11pm but the peroid peak was about 2pm ? Much earlier and during the day time?