Hawaiian North Shore: From zero to one hundred
After a cracking pre-season swell in early October, the Hawaiian North Shore has been fairly quiet with their northwest swell window closed shut. Instead they've had a few weeks of sketchy northerly swells, however that's all about to change this weekend.
Fresh after Parko's win at the Hawaiian Pro and the groundbreaking big wave surfing at pumping Nazare, there's an XL swell inbound for the Hawaiian Islands next week.
With a lot of buzz around the Big Wave World Tour, the WSL will be looking to carry this momentum into another BWT event.
Current forecasts have back to back low pressure systems spawning south-east of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the extension of land between Japan and the Aleutian Islands.
The first low will produce an active sea state and large NW groundswell for Sunday (in time for the start of the Vans World Cup at Sunset and Beachwaver Maui Pro at Honolua Bay) ahead of a much stronger multi-staged low, with embedded fetches of severe-gale to storm-force due to slowly project east-southeast towards Hawaii. The system will reach within 1,000km of the islands.
Early indications are for an XL NW groundswell to fill in on late Monday, peak overnight and ease Tuesday across Peahi. The direction isn't ideal with more northerly swells generally performing better, and also the overnight peak in the swell might throw a spanner in the works.
Winds are the clincher, especially with the reef positioned a fair way offshore. At present, GFS, the American forecast model, has perfect winds, though the more reliable European version has less favourable and gusty E/NE trades developing into the afternoon on Tuesday.
We'll continue to monitor the forecast over the coming days as well as the alert level of the WSL.
Article updated.
Comments
What's that mean for Sunset? Waiting period kicks off on the 25th of Nov.
Should be great with the building swell to an easy 10ft through the day. It'll be bumpy into the afternoon though with sea breezes.
It'll be touch and go regarding being too big Monday morning, and becoming more manageable from Wednesday again. The swells should light up Honolua Bay though for the women.
"The swells should light up Honolua Bay though for the women."
Awesome. Such an epic wave.
Not the most ideal direction as it's fairly protected from NW swells but the size and period of the swell should overcome this somewhat.
Sometimes with really west swells kauai can shadow the other islands. Significantly decreasing swell size , almost completely blocking swell from reaching the other islands.
Yep. These swells are a better NW, rather than those west ones that come from Japan and get fully blocked.
The latest updates have come in and I think this NW direction and the fact the storm is strongest furthest away will see them pass on this swell.
There's also a monster low forecast south of Alaska and large swell for Mavericks. Watch this space.
I wish. Beam me up someone.
Stuck at Nazare.....?
Crowd fund ?
Goes without saying that we all thank Tim for sharing those monumental shots of Nazare.
Front row seats on Tim's up close & personal Big Wave Tour...(Simply breathtaking)
Swellnet & Tim make the perfect team. Nazare award of the highest order to all. Legends!
Tim you got a fan!
Well looking at the updates this morning and the swell is back on track.
The storm is forecast to be more consolidated and maintain storm-force core wind speeds while projecting down towards Hawaii, generating a very significant long-period NW groundswell.
It's also due to arrive earlier and winds are looking good for Peahi still. They could run two half days.
Too big for Sunset?
Yeah way too big!
Reckon there might be a couple of spots round the west side that'd be firing then...
Think they will run?
Love watching Jaws, such a sick, scary monster of a wave, hope the winds are favorable.
Go Bierke!!!!
Cameras are on the ground waiting......any yellow lights yet?
Mavs also?
They could wrap this world tour up in two weeks.....
Surely some kind of word soon. Everything is looking 10-4.
Craig whats the call for the girls event?
Sunday's will likely be too small until later in the day, but they should run Monday before it gets too big and then Tuesday through the end of the week as the swell dies.
Latest North Shore Forecast notes here: XL NW groundswell inbound
Just heard word that WSL are pretty keen to pull the trigger on this swell, so watch this space.
Also the legend Pat Caldwell's synopsis..
"The third source is modelled to form as a low pressure off northern Japan late 11/21. Models show it moving east and merging into the nucleus of the Aleutian low near the Date Line within 11/22-23. This pattern turns into a massive cyclone gyre filling most of the central north Pacific 11/23-25, with central pressure below 960 mb and a slow eastward shift of the low center near 50N from the Date Line to 160W within 11/24-26.
Surface winds are modelled to kick up to severe gale to storm force, with pockets to hurricane force, over a wide, long fetch over the 300-320 degree band that should be over 1500 nm long by early 11/24 as it crosses the Date Line with a large area of seas within 40-50 feet. The head of the fetch should reach to within 1000 nm by late 11/24 over the 310-330 degree band. By this stage, the fetch will be acting upon existing seas from the second source aforementioned, giving greater surf potential locally. Models show a weakening trend to the winds and less aim at Hawaii as the low pressure fills 11/25-27.
Surf locally is predicted to ramp up rapidly in the wee hours before Monday dawn to extra large heights, meaning high enough for breakers on outer reefs. Surf is predicted to peak mid Monday from 300-330 degrees in the giant category, meaning zones of high refraction on outer reefs surpassing 40'."
Angle looks good for the bowl section at jaws .....here we go again ....yellow light yet?
.......Peahi west bowls and Billy Kemper for the win. again
Yellow light!
Go Russ. Will you guys be streaming it?
You betcha.
And???????????
Monday Hawaii time, so tomorrow our time.
Thanks Craig. Found my way to the Vans World Cup stream and saw it there.
Only getting to watch it because I'm home sick today. May have to be sick again tomorrow I think.
Too right!
Beautiful