There’s just a day to go until the Hawaiian Pro begins at Haleiwa - the first contest of the Triple Crown.

Last week, Swellnet reported that John John had entered the Triple Crown, a fact confirmed by Kaipo Guerrero on the Vans Pro webcast and also the Hawaiian Pro heat sheet which noted one J. Florence among the competitors.

Today, however, the heat draw was, err, drawn, and J. Florence is nowhere to be seen. He may have posted a video of himself surfing Pipe, but he won’t be at Haleiwa. 

Gossip out of the way, what’s the surf going to be like?

The organisers won’t have much to begin with. The opening day - Wednesday the 13th - will almost certainly be a layday with 2 to maybe 3 feet of inconsistent NW swell under light trades. If it was the other end of the waiting period, the organisers would jump on it, however with plenty of swell to come there’s every chance they’ll let it lay lady lay.

A large low that formed immediately south of the Aleutians yesterday is currently deepening and moving towards the American west coast with sideband energy brushing Hawaii. It’ll be followed by a smaller low that forms further west. Together they’ll provide a five day run of moderate to large (Hawaiian scale) waves.

On day two, Thursday, competitors will wake to 4-5 foot waves from the N/NW that’ll increase in size all day topping out at a solid 8ft by close of business. Winds will be light from the SE, though without established trades there’s a chance passing storms could swing winds temporarily onshore. Wind squalls notwithstanding, with a strong, increasing swell and light winds it should be a great day of competition.

By day three, Friday, the swell will be on a slow decline from the first storm, easing from around 8ft. However, of greater importance is a trough moving through the islands that’ll swing the wind towards the south, southwest, and then west. It won’t be particularly strong but it will be straight onshore.

Will the contest be on? Maybe!

Parko, reigning champ of the Hawaiian Pro (Heff/WSL)

By Saturday, the trough will have cleared, a new tradewind cycle will begin, and it’ll coincide with the arrival of a good northwest swell from the second low pressure system. The day will start at 4-5 feet and again increase all through the day, topping out this time at 8-10ft. Expect a bit of bump with the trades but otherwise big and rippable Haleiwa.

Sunday, day 5, will see a continuation of conditions: NE trades and approximately 10 feet of swell on a very slow decline.

By Monday, day 6, which is the halfway point of the waiting period, we’ll be well and truly on the backside of the swell event with approximately 6 feet of swell dropping to 3-4 by close of play. Tradewinds are expected all day.

We’ll update and changes in conditions in the comments below.

Click for Swellnet's North Shore forecast