South by South West
Let me preface this article by declaring my personal opinion on south swells.
I hate them, well hate is a harsh word but let's say I strongly dislike south swells - especially those with a bit of west and longer period in them. The reason being that they mostly come in too straight, with any sets that do refract into our predominantly east-facing coast being ruler edge from headland to headland.
There are a couple of regions that respond well to such swells, and if you live on one of them you're probably shaking your head right about now, but for the most part, without a good pointbreak or south-friendly reef, you'll be trying to hunt out any kind of corner off the fast running sets.
With this in mind, expectations for the coming fortnight of southerly swell should be set on the lower end of the scale.
What is exciting is the scope, longevity, and persistence of a large Southern Ocean gyre that's currently developing across the south-east of the country.
As we transition from autumn to winter, the sun sits low in the sky to the north, and the sub-tropical high also shifts further north allowing cold fronts to project up from polar latitudes, across the country. The upper-level atmosphere is also playing a large part in steering and focussing the westerly storm track.
The upper level steering mechanism is known as the Long Wave Trough (LWT), and when focussed across a certain location, we see short-wave surface features (read: cold fronts) following a similar track. A pronounced northward intrusion of the Long Wave Trough is known as a node and these nodes move slowly around the Earth producing a pattern across the southern latitudes similar to a roller-coaster.
To the west of the nodes, cold air is advected up, north across the country, while to the east we see warmer, tropical air transported southwards.
One such node is currently sitting across Victoria, bringing heavy, widespread snow falls and a belting season opener, while on the coast we've got freezing winds and weather. However, the unique thing about this current node of the LWT is that it will remain strong and very slow moving, influencing the weather and surf across the south-east of the country for over a week.
The unusual prolonged nature is represented in the below chart, showing the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from the climate normal) for the coming week. Yes we expect strong cold fronts and lows at this time of the year, but the significance of the coming week is clear. As is corresponding the higher than normal pressure south of the country.
Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for the week Monday the 6th to Monday the 13th of June.
Source: ECMWF
Currently, with its position across Victoria, we're seeing cold fronts projected up and across Tasmania, with the New South Wales coast copping side-band southerly swell energy.
However, as the node shifts slowly east through this week, the frontal activity will broaden and strengthen while projecting more favourably up through the Tasman Sea. When this happens, we'll see embedded polar fronts projecting up, one after the other on top of a very active sea state.
The result will be building levels of southerly swell across the East Coast, increasing in size and period with each successive frontal system. Stay tuned to Steve's Forecast Notes where he'll hone in on the specifics.
Currently the models are slightly misaligned regarding the position of the strongest activity throughout the weekend, with the European version having it slightly further west, resulting in less size pushing up through the Tasman Sea, but regardless we're looking at a sustained run of large southerly swell from Friday through to at least mid-next week, strongest and likely largest later Sunday and early Monday.
Locally, winds look to be generally favourable and out of the west owing to the northward extent of each successive front, providing plenty of quality options if you can avoid the closeouts. It should also set in motion northward flowing sand across the Mid North and North Coasts, a switch from the constant bombardment of easterly swells.
Looking further afield and the frontal activity will be squarely aimed towards Fiji, producing an extended run of large to extra-large surf throughout next week. Whether we see the size reach that seen during the Ramon Navarro swell in May 2018 depends on the alignment and strength of the frontal progression this weekend but early indications are that it will fall just below this size (peaking around 12ft).
Keep an eye on the comments section below as well as the regional Forecaster Notes for running updates on this prolonged southerly swell episode.
Comments
There's a certain spot in Fiji which most people have never heard of, which this comment will have no effect on, which will be fuck off pumping and I wish I was there haha.
Where is it?
We were suppose to be in this exact location at this exact time, however no insurance company would insure the wifey been 27 weeks prego.
We were told of a very costly story from our obstetrician of a couple who had a baby prem in Fiji and by the time it was all done and dusted the bill was $660,000. Woozers! That’s likely a lot of trips to Fiji you’re not enjoying surfing with your son or daughter when they grow up
The Tasman low seems to have become a fixture on the charts ... and also the gigantic blocking high behind it sitting over the Vic swell window ?
I miss the rain already
god I don't.
Last standing puddle just dried out today.
So glorious to walk around without squelching.
You’ve got 100% functionality in your calf? From ratshit in January to all good now ?
not quite a hundred, bout 90 I reckon, still a bit gimpy running.
Good on you. I’m at the bottom of the mountain wondering if any recovery will ever come about. Hopefully it’s just a case of darkest before the dawn.
what's the problem?
have you had an MRI?
Had a CT . Apparently they couldn’t see any impinged nerves. Problem still unidentified. Going to get a nerve conduction test in a week to see if any signal is getting through to my calf. Ultrasounds showed no clots or damage to the muscle. I have my doubts about the ultrasound reading as it feels super tense , tender and stiff at times. Foot numb on one side.
One physio reckons torn tendons and another physio reckons nerve problems.
It’s all confusing, debilitating and quite shit.
Five weeks out of the water so far.
Doing full stretch and rehab to treat any back or calf issues. Perfect diet. Swimming. Walks and exercises.
Sometimes it seems as though there’s a bit of improvement and then others there’s no muscle response at all.
Fingers crossed.
Got any surf mags to read and while the hours away..?
Sometimes I like to build a fort out of them.
A fort two stories high.
Surf mag? No way Swellnet all day
Mud runner extraordinaire....
Preferred to run marathons without his dentures rattling around
Blowy you've deadset lost it. Fuck rain.
After decades in the desert I’ve got a thing for rain on the roof and vibrant greenery springing with life. Floods and brown ocean aren’t really my bag but regular rain periods certainly are.
Having recently been out to the red centre I get that. There is something magical about water falling from the sky, though I'd be happy not seeing it for a while.
I'll take 3 months without a cloud in the sky thanks.
As somewhat of a pluviophile I miss the rain already too.
But yeah ,there is a limit to that when it comes to major flooding etc
This wind is drying things out very fast around here at the moment.
I fully share your sentiments re. South Swells. They're meh even on points, unless relentless sweep is your jam. Oh and it's bloody cold too. Fogetaboutit!
More importantly does this node of the LWT push eastwards out and up into the South Pacific creating pumping surf for our WCT friends in the coming weeks?
More important? Yeah...nah
Some impressive swell periods in the mix also. 17-18 secs + for Nth NSW
Was wondering about that Don, figured they had to be right up there by east coast standards.
Remembering that swell period is mostly a product of wind strength, if wind strengths don't reach 45-50kt or so we won't see those 18s periods and it'll fall mostly between 12-16s.
Cheers Craig
Thats the beauty of having so many options on the EC at your fingertips, find a bit of sand (or reef)facing the right way and your off like shit off a shiny shovel
Lifes short....get some :-)
Worst possible synoptic situation for our region, surfwise. Fuck.
But at least the Southern Alps will get a solid amount of snow.
Interesting weather observation for the Atlantic Ocean.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-07/la-ni%C3%B1a-could-become-the-no…
As a Vicco surfer, reading this makes me physically unwell.
Craigos - this also seems to go against your recent article intimating the end of La Nina. Thoughts?
That article above is talking about climate predictions and impacts on millennial scales, not in our near future so it's got nothing to do with the current weakening La Niña.
I like the windy app, besides BOM, what's y'all's fav or go to ??
Windy. Find the high resolution wind forecast very accurate (more so than BOM's MetEye, which only gives low res forecasts that can't account for subtle terrain/ coastline intricacies)
Seabreeze is good for watching a southerly change come up the coast, and other such comparisons.
And I have a glance for any big changes in the week ahead. The forecasts aren’t accurate for morning offshores but it will tell you if a decent southerly is coming. Or a period of light northerlies, etc
Sunshine coast surfer. Combo of holfuy for literal at the beach wind reading, willy weather for nearby wind reading, tide and swell forecast, Qld government wave buoy for real time swell height, direction and period, surf-forecast for an outlier swell/wind prediction, and looking every day for personal visual confirmation.
Funnily, being a paid subscriber to this site, outside of the fantastic tri-weekly written reports, it's probably the only one I don't check for modelled surf forecasts.
Yep Windy and WillyWeather
DSD is your calf sore in bed at night or just weight bearing?
Not really painful in itself just useless. Can walk -ugly gait - but can’t raise up on pad of foot.
stop fcuking around with x-ray and CT and get the MRI.
Its of any use, I could ride a foamy on my guts in the whitewater, which did keep me sane on a couple of occasions.
Get a bodyboard
DSD , freeride76 is right , the MRI may cost you , but for complete picture of the soft tissue MRI is the go. Also , if you have ever had Sciatica or nerve impingement anywhere along mid/low back ,it could be sciatic nerve issue .
Nerve impingement is a tricky issue and can present itself in illogical ways . I had 8 years of intermittent sciatica and I missed out on loads of activity time . In the end , good medical care and practicing basic "foundation training" turned fixed me up . No issues for 3 years now .
Best of luck getting it sorted.
DSD , freeride76 is right , the MRI may cost you , but for complete picture of the soft tissue MRI is the go. Also , if you have ever had Sciatica or nerve impingement anywhere along mid/low back ,it could be sciatic nerve issue .
Nerve impingement is a tricky issue and can present itself in illogical ways . I had 8 years of intermittent sciatica and I missed out on loads of activity time . In the end , good medical care and practicing basic "foundation training" turned fixed me up . No issues for 3 years now .
Best of luck getting it sorted.
I'd concur about the MRI. For me the foundation training seemed to ruin me. I started doing it and had big disc herniation a few weeks later. Everyone is different.
That big low may blow NZ further away, send them a prayer.
Blowin ya f@$wit!! (sorry, force of habit)
I'm loathe to offer you any helpful advice to your healing after your continual tirades against me, but, don't like seeing anyone missing surf time nor suffering, so here's something that worked for me.
Had a pinched nerve in neck last year that reduced my bicep to half the size, couldn't paddle, couldn't even push up on a surfboard. Hence couldn't surf...for about 4months.
Tried a heap of stuff, exercises, stretches, this that, and nothing worked. Eventually a mate of mine who was a professional athlete and well versed in these things showed me a way to manipulate the pressure point that was connected to those nerves and muscles. The way he put it, you have to get in there and untangle them all. So after he showed me, i'd keep massaging that pressure point a few times a day, really dig in there with one or two fingers... it would hurt but i'd keep the positivity that it was working.
And it did. Pretty quickly too. Within a couple of weeks i was regaining strength, could see muscle growth returning, within a month back to nearly 100percent.
You might need to find someone to show you the exact spot to manipulate but if you haven't already done that, then i would highly recommend giving it a crack and hopefully sorting it out.
Anyway, hope that helps.
Oh get a room you two
https://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast.php?type=rain®ion=nzsi&noof…
" It should also set in motion northward flowing sand across the Mid North and North Coasts, a switch from the constant bombardment of easterly swells."
Speaking of easterly swell bombardment Craig.
Any chance swellnet can do an Erosion Update article for the east coast?. Wondering how places like that stupid "Great Wall of Collaroy" have degraded during this run of east swells.
Might also be interesting to add how the Floods have affected the sandflow/beaches. I noticed the sandbank at the tweed bar was pushed about half a km further out to sea from the extreme river flows during recent floods. Surely this flood even has made a lot of changes to almost all east coast river/creek mouths?
Erosion wise from what I've seen locally and more abroad the coast has been impacted fairly significantly. Lots of scarping and at Manly rocks uncovered that I never knew existed close to the exit stairs and walkways.
The wall has been buffered by constant sand being placed in front of it, but haven't had a look at what's been occurring further north and south of it. Will have to take a drive.
After initially setting up epic banks things have filled in and straightened up across a lot of beaches so having a sneaky rip bowl or patch of sand handling the south energy is worth its weight in gold right now.
Without southerly swell the east coast would be flat 80% of the time…dust of the big boards I say
After the last six months of predominately easterly swell which my region absolutely
loathes and with zero rideable banks Im really excited about this south swell for my
local reefs and points this direction makes it very very good indeed and hopefully
rearranges the beaches so you can actually surf them under 5ft. Bring it.
Last Friday south swell my local was absolutely mental.
Yeah this one's for you Evo!
"Last Friday south swell my local was absolutely mental."
Where were you? I surfed it from first light for a few hours.
Yep it was cranking last Friday
Probably at home watching a replay of the womens g-land comp
Tassie will see snow close to sea level through Saturday evening and early Sunday..
How's the cold air mass!
Beautiful, ruler-edge closeouts.
Perfect
I'm not a massive fan of south swells either Craig. But I realise that without them my local wouldn't have any sand in the northern corner. South swells usually push all the sand into the corner of the beach and then when a decent NE swell comes it pumps for days on end. Need those south swells to push things into place. Mostly unsurfable in the gong bar a few spots
True, true, I just set my expectations accordingly.
Beautiful, ruler edged closeouts are my local beaches specialty. Hopefully the prolonged length of the event or swell period, or direction convinces those lines to sneak around the corner and march down the rock lined headlands...
Confucious say:
No such thing as a closeout if it's hollow.
My favourite surf cam is shark island, never been there, bucket list though. It likes a southerly swell ? Maybe south/ south east direction. I live in Qld but am drawn to S island for some reason. Every decent swell I'm straight on si cam.
Nice one Craig.
With the SOI cranking back up is it a likely scenario that once this LWT node bails that we are back in to more of the same from the east until the next one comes?
Thanks Craig I will happily accept your gift.
Stu I do gentleman hours after the tradies go off to work.
I paddled out about 9-930 after tossing up between point
and Island for about 30 odd minutes. Only lasted about 1 hour
after a rather big nasty 2nd reef beat down rehurt my back rather
badly now trying to get it right for incoming madness. Will test tomorrow.