June In Review

Craig Brokensha (Craig)
Swellnet Analysis

No matter how mentally well prepared East Coasters were to the shift in swell regimes, it's still hard to grapple with when seeing non-stop Southern Ocean swells, hardly making a dent while diffracting up through the Tasman Sea.

Three years of gorging to near flat conditions, all while Victoria and South Australia make up for lost time.

Surf Coast sneakers (Scanlon)

June was very slow across the East Coast with weeks of small to tiny surf but gorgeous ocean conditions, perfectly suited to whale watching and snorkelling.

Spitting whales, not waves on the East Coast (Brokensha)

Across the south of Australia, persistent Southern Ocean fronts pushed up and across the south-east of the country, focussed mainly into Victoria.

This resulted in endless quality days of swell for the Surf Coast, with the long-weekend being a standout with the arrival of a large, SW groundswell under perfect offshore winds.

Across South Australia the Victor Harbor and other protected regions faired best, with the fronts pushing in from the Bight bringing lots of north-west wind.

Looking at the Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly charts (difference in pressure from the long-term climate mean) for the month of June, one can see where all the activity was focussed. A significant low pressure anomaly spreading out from the Bight down to Tasmania indicates the presence of strong, swell generating frontal systems, while what also stands out is the benign activity in the Tasman Sea and strong high pressure anomalies south-west of Western Australia and south-east of New Zealand.

Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly for the month of June

Those who visited Indonesia during June would be able to relate to the lack of significant swells thanks to the high setup to the south-west of Western Australia, while swells had more of a southerly bias for the Margaret River region with only a handful of semi-decent days between cold fronts.

We're nearly halfway through July and the only thing that has shifted is the focus of the frontal systems more towards Western Australia, bringing westerly energy to the south-eastern states, while activity projecting up past New Zealand has brought sporadic pulses of small to moderate sized southerly swell for the East Coast.

There looks to be no real change to the outlook across the East Coast and with the El Niño signal throughout the Pacific set to strengthen through spring, we can expect things to deteriorate further as gusty north-east winds dominate the landscape.

Comments

donweather Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 02:45 pm

How's that massive high pressure anomaly to the SE of NZ!!!

freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 03:42 pm

Babyfood winter here.

murderinc Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 03:48 pm

Thoughts & prayers to the southerns who have moved to S/E QLD and yet to experience a proper spring with relentless devil winds!

Sprout Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 04:49 pm

Hopefully they all fuck off back South.

memlasurf Saturday, 15 Jul 2023 at 09:08 am

That’s extremely polite sprout.

freeride76 Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 03:49 pm

hahahaha, indeed.

They will understand the phrase "good day for flathead fishing" soon enough.

FrazP Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 06:51 pm

The 9'2 mal was covered in dust and has now been re-born. Don't mind a small clean day and pulling out the log. Generally though we have had a decent fill. Outside of shit banks around home no real complaints. Wouldn't be unhappy for La Nina to return though - the waves are enough to compensation for the mould.

Solitude Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 09:51 pm

Water’s as clean as could be, banks getting some time to settle, few little southerly sessions, epic weather. It’s not all bad.

Bracing for spring. Praying summer isn’t horrendous for heat / fire etc.

lostdoggy Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 09:57 pm

I've had a great June and I'm on the East Coast.
And that's short boarding too.

dbut Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 10:50 pm

Where abouts are you lost doggy

lostdoggy Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 08:25 am

A South swell magnet.

benjis babe Saturday, 15 Jul 2023 at 07:19 am

A bay lost doggy, r u doing the nudie run

belly Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 08:27 am

Yeah late June into very early July was pretty good.

wbat Thursday, 13 Jul 2023 at 10:38 pm

Margaret River has been totally fucked!!!!!

Solitude Saturday, 15 Jul 2023 at 01:23 pm

What just shite weather and onshore slop?

Craig Saturday, 15 Jul 2023 at 08:18 pm

Relentless onshore winds, large surf and poor weather. It's been a shocker.

groovie Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 07:19 am

Total flip back to small to moderate (although rare this June) directional South swells here on the Mid Nth Coast. No banks anywhere although the odd corner here & there off very straight sandbanks. Maybe 1 in 10 is the average % of waves that are not 1 or 2 turns B4 closing out! Frustrating but still getting in for a surf maybe twice a week on average.

Weatherman Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 09:27 am

There have been more good waves on the Surf Coast in the last 2-3 months than all of last year I would say. Hopefully it continues.

radiationrules Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 09:52 am

Hi Craig > wondering if "El Niño signal throughout the Pacific set to strengthen through spring" translates into the possibility of late-season Indo having a bumper crop of swells and favorable winds? > RR

Craig Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 10:17 am

The links between El Niño and the Indonesian surf season to me are unclear.

I've been trying to indentify links to drivers etc but it's such a big ocean basin and effected by other teleconnections like the SAM and IOD etc.

This might be handy, a study done my Mark Hemer on the correlations of mean significant wave height with ENSO/SAM etc. https://wacop.gsd.spc.int/Atlas/ClimateC/Docs/Report_2011.pdf Pages 31 onwards are great.

https://i.imgur.com/Ai6Vogg.png

The top charts shows the correlation between the SOI and wave heights, so when the SOI is + we see larger wave heights.

SOI + = La Niña and this shows an increase in size for the East Coast and Indonesia, though knowing for Indonesia it was mid-period stuff so lower quality.

Hence when SOI - = El Niño you'd expect a reduction in size across Indonesia, but with longer interval/period swells.

For the SAM (bottom chart), the correlation is inverse, so SAM - = increase in wave heights for the south of Aus and also it looks like Indonesia. IE lift in storm track = more swell.

So as you can see there's more to be gained from the correlation with La Niña to Australia's swell regime, ie increased activity East Coast, dropped for south-eastern states, increased mid-latitude stuff for WA and mid-period swells for Indonesia.

But on the other end El Niño is less clear with a reduction in swell heights but possibly better period swells? Would love to see the same charts using swell period.

radiationrules Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 10:35 am

Hi Craig > thanks for following up. I can follow your thoughts - but can't read that data as deeply as you can. On a basic level, I got La Nina skunked in Indo last November, so I was hoping that I might get El Nino dream waves in Oct/Nov this year. Based on what you say, this is not a logical conclusion, given the El Nino data correlations are not as obvious as La Nina. I may have to book last minute, after we see what emerges in Aug/Sept . BTW I can confirm that WA's NW season has been negatively affected by the emerging El Nino patterns. > RR

Craig Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 10:41 am

Yep, that's about the sum of it, a weak to neutral + IOD should bring persistent SE trades that will weaken into spring.

evosurfer Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 06:42 pm

After 3 years of near non stop surf its going to be tough to get use to hardly surfing again.
Bali has pretty much been pumping the last 10 days if that helps anyone but its raining a lot
and I mean a lot

FrazP Friday, 14 Jul 2023 at 07:41 pm

Not a lot for you at home evo, just perfect waves for the school hol kids.

You scoring on east coast or slipping around west? Some footage at Ulu looked big.

Island Bay Sunday, 16 Jul 2023 at 08:19 am

Pumping here (NZ North Island west coast) all of June, then a radical switch to squally westerlies, and onshore dog shit. And water temp dropped to 14.5C :-/

Clam Tuesday, 18 Jul 2023 at 10:52 am

I can't remember the last time I've seen such a run of large west swells on the southern shores, it hasn't dropped off - for weeks

Craig Wednesday, 19 Jul 2023 at 07:47 am

Yeah it's been non-stop eh! Pretty remarkable.

Johnyuleanderson Wednesday, 19 Jul 2023 at 06:01 am

Yeh it’s been endless waves down here my arms are cooked! (Peninsula Vicco)