Autumn has finally arrived across the country. From an XL swell across the Tasman Peninsula on the weekend to cool, groomed easterly swell lines on the East Coast, the change in weather and surface aesthetics has been apparent.

Humid days are gone, with crisp offshore winds kicking in across most locations. All is not perfect, however, with the action being focussed from Tasmania and to the east.

We all witnessed Victoria's average run of conditions during the Rip Curl Pro's waiting period, and South Australia hasn't fared much better. Meanwhile, on the other side of the country, Western Australia has been clean but with only small to moderate waves down south and just small in the metro regions.

With all this in mind, the coming fortnight looks to be a super-charged version of the current synoptic setup - the next week in particular.

The basic pattern will see significant polar storms forming to the southwest of Tasmania, deepening as they project northeast towards New Zealand, before being deflected southeast towards the polar shelf on approach.

Take one look at the Southern Ocean WAMs and you'll notice the constant shade of red and purple extending all the way to the back end of the month.

Why is the storm track persistently strengthening southwest of Tasmania?

Also, why is the storm track seeming to avoid Western Australia?

It's all thanks to a strong node of the Long Wave Trough (LWT) forming across the Tasmanian region, and remaining near stationary for the coming week. Only from later next week will it move slowly east towards New Zealand.

In essence, the LWT identifies areas of enhanced frontal activity. The jet stream, and, in turn, the westerly storm track follows the LWT, with polar storms strengthening as they approach the 'nodes' - see image below.

In between the nodes are ridges, which are areas of reduced frontal activity and generally dominated by higher pressure.

So the answer to the above questions are that, over the coming fortnight, a node will stall and remain in the vicinity of Tasmania and New Zealand, resulting in the persistent strengthening of polar storms as they're steered towards the peak of the node.

Long Wave Trough forecast for this evening 

The southeast of the continent, plus New Zealand's west coast and parts of Polynesia, will be the beneficiaries as southwest swell lines sweep outwards from the storms. Owing to the position of the node being a little further east than is ideal, the winds for southern NSW aren't as favourable as they could be, tending more south-west to south-east, but they'll be good enough to create clean conditions most mornings.

With Victoria and South Australia being just west of the node, winds also aren't expected to be as favourable as if it were positioned a little more over the Bight, with winds generally having a south-westerly bias through Bass Strait and southerly in South Australia.

Tasmania will bear the brunt of the frontal activity with episodic large swells due from tomorrow through this week and next, while the East Coast will also see persistent southerly energy kicking in from tomorrow, extending through the end of next week.

Meanwhile, Cloudbreak will push into the 10 foot+ range this weekend as the strongest and largest of the groundswells arrive, with it unlikely to drop below 5-6 foot for the following fortnight.

With the yin comes the yang - hello Western Australia. With the lack of frontal activity in its immediate swell window, the region will be generally small and reliant on longer-range and inconsistent swell pulses.

One such run of long-range westerly swell is due late next week with a shift in activity possible towards the end of the month.

We'll keep a closer eye on this in the local Forecaster Notes.