A Red-Hot Olympic Preparation
With all eyes on the South Pacific in the lead up to the Olympic Games, it’s impossible not to notice the big purple blob of swell forecast to soon hit Tahiti.
At present, surfing's Olympic athletes are in Teahupoo preparing for the games. Yet as they familiarise themselves with the reef, a potent mix of weather is combining 3,000 kilometres to the southwest of them.
Yes, that purple blob.
In the coming days, a significant Southern Ocean frontal progression is set to develop south of New Zealand, squeezed by the near record-breaking high pressure system currently straddling southern Australia.
It’s this squeezing between the high pressure system and polar westerly winds that will set in motion a swell that, from this vantage point, will invite comparison to the infamous Code Red swell from thirteen years ago - August 27, 2011, to be exact.
The driver will be a strong node of the Long Wave Trough (LWT) developing southeast of New Zealand. The Long Wave Trough is an upper atmospheric feature which effectively steers surface features, such as cold fronts, towards where it is amplified.
With the LWT focussed southeast of New Zealand we’ll see Southern Ocean storms steered toward this region over the next week.
The undulation is the path of the Long Wave Trough, which storms broadly follow. Later this week the path of the Long Wave Trough will shift to be southeast of New Zealand setting up a corridor of swell aimed at Tahiti.
During today and tomorrow, an initial polar frontal system will generate a broad swathe of westerly gales south of New Zealand, setting in motion an active sea state.
An active sea state is essentially an agitated sea surface that works as a primer for any following storm, allowing wave growth to accelerate faster than it would off a placid sea state.
Over that active sea state, an even stronger frontal system will pass this weekend and early next week. With wind speeds expected to reach storm-force (55kt - 100km/h) as it moves past New Zealand’s East Coast, we’re expected to see open ocean seas reaching 45 feet, or 13.5 metres, aimed squarely at Tahiti.
It will arrive in Tahiti amid a week of large surf with the peak being either late on Wednesday 10th July or sometime on Thursday 11th - two weeks before the Games begin.
It'll create a spectacle only witnessed every few years. The surf will be in the 15 foot range - or five times overhead - and most definitely tow only. Quality of the surf will depend on local winds which we'll monitor closely over the coming days.
The image that came to define Code Red 2011 - Nathan Fletcher loses contact deep in the maw of Teahupoo (Brian Bielmann)
The Code Red swell of 2011 got its name from the signal used by Tahitian authorities to shut down any nautical activities for 24 hours. To date, it's only been exercised twice, the second time in July 2022, yet despite the bureaucratic stop sign, surfers have ridden waves at Teahupoo during both Code Red swells.
With the eyes of the world on the region, it’ll be interesting to see what sort of policing will be called upon if a third Code Red is announced.
There’s also the expected damage to local infrastructure due to the inundation of the Tahitian coast in such swells.
The Paris Olympics begin on Friday 26th July, with the waiting period for surfing beginning the very next day.
// CRAIG BROKENSHA
Comments
Booyah!!!
Could be Code Brown if another purple blob rears it's head during the waiting period.
Code Violet? Doesn’t have quite the same ring.
That photo is insane. Just incredible what humans can survive... then fall over putting on pants and die. Fearlipe took 6 months off to pray to Brazzo Jeebus for 4ft Chopes, will his prayerth be answered?
Hey craig
Mate is there Any chance any of this swell could push across to Fiji?
Not ideal, there'll be some radial spread off it but it'll struggle to reach CB. Hitting more exposed locations to the east.
Thanks mate
bet they are pulling the scaffolding /tower already.........
That wave of Nathan Fletchers is still the highwater mark of heaviest waves ever attempted imo.
It's funny cause out of the water Nathan is so Mellow, Respectful.
Maybe it's just he was exposed to such heavy / big surf at such a young age?
Having uncle Marvin tow you on his legrope out to waimea.....
The place is locked down for the Olympics no one will be allowed to surf.
I've heard similar.
F that!
That's insane. wtf.
They would probably have to literally confiscate or disable Matahi's skis.
Craig how long will the LWT stay in place and what's chances of a follow pulse during waiting period?
Or have we effectively shot our load too early and now need to wait to do another lap round the planet?
LOL
Will the Olympics be gazumped?
experienced volunteers only apply
Are there other fun/novelty waves around when this happens?
Looks like the storm is moving a little quicker and not as intense. Still tow size but not to Code Red levels.
The 'lympics needs four days out of a ten day window.
Here's the forecast for eight days from next Wednesday to the Wednesday after it.
Just for a bit of fun, imagine this forecast was over the Olympic period. Organisers would be foreced to choose two days out of this lot.
Is the new tower up and running ?
dunno, any word, footage? they were certainly actively avoiding it in the wsl coverage..
(tbb's exhaustive reserach, up till a month ago: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-dispatch/2023/12/02/barge-olympi…)
spitting blood at the end of the heat, discussing surf strategy...
What's Pottz doing these days? I miss him on the commentary...
Did you see the post he put out about Lisa Anderson,
Think he moved onto another career.
Best of luck to excellent surfer and world champ.
Tickets to Maui for that right hander I’m not gonna try and spell?
True, didn't that come from a hurricane though ? Ma'alea....
Winds have come good for Tahiti and Ma'laaee or whatever it is will be pumping in Maui
Pretty interested to hear reports from the front line if any are out there
"Over all the years i have been filming this spot this (is) one of the best days ever for sheer perfection."
Special thanks - to Simon Thornton & to Air Tahiti Nui
Cindy Drollet from Teahupoo Boat Tours
and Tahina David for putting me in the spot to get the shot & GoPro ANZ
Good luck Olympians, choose waves wisely.
pro surfers pulling in, shmick editing and glam flam bango
girls taking on cross shore bump; guys dropping in deeep with smooth offshore; aka pipeline finals
A couple of good ASCAT passes from the progression with some 50kt barbs..
Frothing!
Lets play a little game of 'Where's Filipe'...
Back in the day, we used to just turn up at the beach and paddle out . These days you need a degree in meteorology, oceanography and travel, to work out where and when in the world you’re going to surf!
back in the 60's ?
Back in the push bike days
Filipe is there with the Brazzo crew. John John and Griff are already there and Ned Hart is going over. Should be bigger and better than the last best day ever.
40ft+ seas recorded south of Tahiti..
Aint looking like much in the first few days of the forecast from the long range.
Looks like they're just gonna miss a coupla weeks of pumping surf.
Pretty active Southern Ocean though so lets hope.
A fijian mate of mine sent me a pic from Cloudy today of him and EE.
No doubt clocking up his backhand tube count away from the growing hype.
No video footage floating around yet from the last 36 hrs, was the wind bad on Thursday?
How big did she come in @ chopes today ?
21st July GFS chart has a high pressure of 1089hPa over Antarctica, in the section below Aus ... is that insane???
Guessing high pressure there is good for pushing storms north into the pacific.
Any Olympians grab the rope yesterday?
Looking like a gold medal forecast for Flippy.
Just looked on youtube for clips from tahiti olympic training, and only saw clip of Molly Picklum. Din’t use instagram so maybe clips are being posted there?
Would think there would be more buildup to olympics event, but maybe there’s a blackout edict?
Looked like it was mostly locals out on the big day last week.
Watching the footy today and they were running adds for the Olympics. One add with Aussie team / athletes together. Ariana Titmas, Kyle chalmers and couple others, and there is Sally fitz shit eating grin in the green and gold ??
Does this confirmTylers pulled out or wtf is the benchwarmer doing as the face of the Aussie surfing team?
Think she’s been in some Harvey Norman ads as that’s her sponsor. Bit weird though I agree. She’s not going
Red Hot swellnet Surf God spilt milk on Red Faced Huey.
OMG our Wave Guru summoned up [CODE RED] from a Purple Blob...Go Craig Go!
Low & behold...
#1swellnet Surf God Craig Stokes up Wide World of Sports Pure Massacre Teahupoo Wild Wipeouts!
Gromz : "OMG That's how ya Froth a Trough...that's our Kinda Surf God's Forecast!"
Huey : "Beatin' by the Best...stoked to pass on Neptune's Trident to Surf God Craig!"
Exhibit A : The Official Paris 2024 OMEGA [CODE RED] Blobby Blog Thing Alert + Postponement
https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/live-updates/3c0121ac-a8b8-4702-a497…
Surf God Craig's pet Purple Blob now spills the Weet-Bix Grom'z Milk & eats Irukandjis for breakfast
Oh the Humanity! "Irukandji rescued from drowning in dangerous and crazy Olympic Storm"
[ Wall of Skulls Code Red Blood Lust ] @ tbb
https://www.foxsports.com.au/olympics/paris-olympics-2024-surfing-postp…
Crew surrender their ungodly forecast tips to their Official OMEGA Mt Olympus ideal Surf God Craig!
Kinda weird that Far Flung Olympic Hot Spot fell off the Forecaster's Radar...
Crew woulda picked Teahupoo for Postponement also!
So we arrive at Crunch time with no forecaster calling the Shots...Huh!
Huey : "My Kingdom for a half arsed Surf Forecaster!"
Firstly...WTF ISA demanded Teaupoo & have no Forecast News / Link (Event is postponed & not a clue!)
Surf God is Nowhere to be found when ya Need one...
False Godz Fernando & Tony Foamie's Surf Safari strands ideal exotic surf groupies high'n'dry!
ISA posponed event but from which forecaster to bring it on home...Huh! Got nuthin' Why!
https://isasurf.org/event/paris-2024/
Ain't no one updating the Official Dash Board...Surfing is lookin' outdated & now hung out to dry!
For 99% of lead up never listed Surfing as a sport in Tickets/Venues/Maps.
They hand out medals today at Lunch to no one we guess...wot a shitshow > fuck over dumb Surfies!
All know they always cop the raw prawn...they won't say nothin'...ROAR! (Just kidding!)
https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/sports/surfing
Having trouble sourcing the Official Olympic Surf Forecaster...Yeah! tbb as well!
Guessing it's whoever scored the app contract...possibly why it's off our ai radar!
app store run plenty of Surf format Promos without Branded Forecaster?
Possibly Apple Surf Watch Forecasts via...(Surfline-Dawn Patrol) No Free Link Advertising...
tbb will share Links to generic Olympic interface concept
https://olympics.com/en/news/surfing-at-paris-2024-preview-schedule-how…
https://apps.apple.com/us/app/paris-2024-olympics/id808794344
Even weirder that we get flogged to death by this overblown syndicated coordinated late strike!
100's of these Wave Cast Ads poppin' up on all Olympic News Titles
(Again No Hot Linking!) Just sharing the generic Olympic Forecaster's Plug!
https://apnews.com/article/olympics-2024-surfing-tahiti-d59de2410cdc256…
+ Current free [AP] Forecaster hot link?
https://apnews.com/article/tahiti-surfing-paris-olympics-2024-df2fb868a…
This syndicated ideal 'Wave Cast' [Olympic AD] is blowing up the internet.
Either way they blew their Promo budget on slip streamin' a free ride off Surf God Craig's wake!
Thought to offer up these unworthy sullen gifts to our Wave God Craig...
Craig has every right to delay tbb's last wave in...Like been waiting 5 years now...Hurts so good Master!
tbb is fine to have a good crack @ slottin' into Craig's Frontline Lifeline Line Up
Official Forecast Summary...No Official Olympic Surf Forecaster when ya most need one!
Associated Apple Watch app links to Dawn Patrol / Surfline + News ad WaveCast
Official 'Supporter' [Arena] > (Surfer Mag) Do imply Official Forecasts but No Branding
https://www.surfer.com/news/olympic-surfing-forecast-teahupoo-paris-2024
Anyhow! #1swellnet Surf God Craig's Pet Purple Blob stole the crown off all these pretenders!