What's Steering Alfred?
Six feet to twenty feet, and everything in between.
Every refresh of the East Coast forecast charts reveals a new outlook, and it all surrounds the movements of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
Alfred is currently a Category 3 system, meandering in the Coral Sea, triangulated midway between the Australian mainland, the Solomon Islands, and New Caledonia.
While there’s high confidence regarding the southward movement of Alfred over the coming days, this confidence lowers significantly into the weekend with multiple scenarios at play, including a coastal crossing between central and southern Queensland, which, if it were to happen, would be devastating.
Current position of Tropical Cyclone Alfred (Zoom.Earth)
With so many advances in computing and forecasting technology, why are tropical storms still so hard to grapple?
The answer to that is largely because cyclones survive in environments where there is weak upper atmospheric wind. Yet it's also those upper atmospheric winds that steer cyclones.
While the cyclone itself contains signficiant winds, where and how fast the whole system moves is is dictated by other, often more subtle, environmental factors. These include ridging from high pressure or interactions with the jetsream.
When there's an absence of those environmental factors, a powerful system is at the mercy of hairline shifts in the atmosphere - and that creates a forecasting difficulty.
Since forming last weekend, Alfred has meandered about the Coral Sea thanks to the lack of any major steering influences.
The track over the next couple of days will be a result of a subtropical high in the Tasman Sea, moving east across New Zealand, with Alfred following the path of least resistance south and settling at a position east of Rockhampton this weekend.
The circuit breaker for whether Alfred stays offshore from the coast or moves inland - and hence whether there will be surf or just a rainy washout - is an approaching upper level trough from the south-west on Monday.
Importantly, this trough will, for the first time since Alfred formed, bring upper level steering winds. The winds will be north-west and arrive ahead of the trough, helping steer the system away from the coast. Yet any delay in the approaching trough would allow Alfred to possibly start tracking inland.
The below chart shows the timing of the expected upper level trough, with The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) having the trough arriving earlier and with more strength (left) than the US’s Global Forecasting System (GFS) forecast (right). This can be seen by identifying the trough line axis, which is across Coffs Harbour in the left image on Monday evening, but still around Newcastle in the right image.
Timing of the upper level wind change Monday evening. ECMWF (left) has it arriving earlier and with more strength than GFS (right). (Weatherzone)
While only hours in diffference, any weakening or change to the angle of this trough could be the difference between a coastal crossing and an offshore track.
Looking at the associated track forecast by various iterations of the ECMWF model for TC Alfred (below) and the majority of the forecasts have it tracking south-southeast, away from the coast into early next week. There is still a chance for a coastal crossing as indicated by the lighter green across south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales, though it puts this at 10-20%.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred strike probability (ECWMF)
In regards to swell potential, the most beneficial for surfers is for TC Alfred to stay out to sea, at arms length of the coast. This would generate a wider ranging swell event from Queensland to southern New South Wales with less ‘bank-busting’ surf that otherwise would only be surfable at a handful of breaks.
In terms of coastal erosion and impacts on the general population, this is obviously the best case scenario as well.
While the offshore outlook is favoured, we’ll continue to ride the roller coaster of model updates as the eventual track and swell potential becomes clearer.
Comments
This is great Craig, thank you
Seconded by a rank layman - thanks Craig!
I've currently got a subscription to both surfline and swellnet, after only really giving swellnet a go recently. The 3 detailed forecaster notes a week, and multiple reports a day from the forecast team at swellnet really highlights the lack of effort over at surfline.
I think surfline's colour coding system they use to rank surf quality is cheap and misleading too. The amount of times I've had mates of mine say, 'oh its yellow on surfline, may aswell stay home' is hillarious, when anyone who can read forecast basics knows it'll be perfect conditions.
The community aspect through the comment section, and posts like these, I think is the best, especially for those with a bit of forecasting obsession (a healthy obsession, forecasting is just as fun and rewarding as surfing imo). Cheers for this one Craig! Everyone support your local forecasting site for just 10 bucks a month, and lets hope Alfred stays off the coast.
Oath mate swellnet is the shit surfline suck thick black cobras
100% agree
Thanks for the feedback, we really appreciate it.
You guys at Swellnet are more on the money than the BOM. Honestly, they hedge their bets and are a bit shit. Thanks Ben and the crew for putting in the hard yards every second day to keep us regulars at swellnet happy with the incoming weather and surf predictions.
Haha... the BOM!!!
50% chance of rain means 50% chance it won't rain, and it's normally the latter...
Yep. Surfline is sensationalist garbage. Their WSL forecasts are always double the actual outcome
Surfline, more cams, absolute SHIT reports and forecasts, probably the worst going.
Swellnet, less cams, easily the BEST reports and forecasts of anyone, especially M/W/F.
Had both for years though cancelled SL recently. It's pretty pointless unless there's specific / overseas cams you use. I don't.
And they don't have Stu <3
Confused?
I always thought <3 meant breasts - like if you view it side on.
Just clarified it doesn't, so right backacha.
He meant that you’re the tits.
Now I feel like a boob.
Ha, He got you in a booby trap!!
also side on, I thought it was nuts
I also struggle with latte art with coffee shops presenting all manner of vulgarities to me over the years
OO
?
And I'll 2nd that on Stu. Always interesting, well researched and serious articles on design and build.
swellnet every day of the week for me , i organise work around a forecast around a week out .
+1 absolutely..
Have any other surfline users notice that they deadset just stopped posting daily reports ever since around december last year? Where the old morning report used to be is just a short description written a few days prior of forecasted conditions, not an actual, real time observation from the spot.
A few things i like about surfline (the positives don't outweigh the negatives) are as someone mentioned the number of cams they have. The option to look at what the winds are doing at an exact break is good too on a morning when winds might vary slightly from one spot to another. I like how you can see the conditions on an hourly basis too compared to the 6 hour intervals on here. Being able to look at historical data on surfline up to 10 years ago is cool too if i'm reminiscing on a swell. As I said, this site just does everything else so much better though, and for the price we pay we are pretty lucky.
2nd that. Narabeen news is lazy and thin.
here here
You've hit the nail on the head @swellsam; Surfline's tri-weekly forecast updates have become more sparse by the month... as you've said, the only word that comes to mind is lazy
+1
I’ll second that (or is it sixth now?). Whilst the app is a bit glitchy and sometimes requires a restart of your phone to load, I’ve noticed a massive improvement in the observed reports for my local (Newy) since last year. This includes improved accuracy, better detail, much better writing (i.e. information that’s relevant and helpful which is written properly) and sometimes even advice to hold off till later in the day despite what the wind/swell forecast on other sites is saying. I’ve scored on a couple of occasions from these tips. I also agree that Surfline pales in comparison and has gone downhill rapidly over the past year. It also feels good to support local surf forecasters and Australian-owned and operated businesses like Swellnet. Whoever is doing your reports for Newcastle now, please pass on my positive feedback. Any chance of putting the water temp back into the reports? It’s really helpful info.
Powerful waves in SE QLD today, combined with a shallow low tide bank
9.1 not a good option.
Wash your mouths out, the mere mention of Surfline and I cringe. It’s got nothing on Swellnet.
Swellnet leaves Surfline in its wake.
We’ve got great owners, staff, knowledgeable forecasters come oceanographers and meteorologists, top line surf journalists a full box of chocolate.
Show ya loyalty to this starship, if you don’t subscribe , you should.
If you’re not subscribing, I want to know why. AW
LOL
You just said it ....
Shotedump. Hi mate.
So good. AW
Looks like a flamin mongrel of a cyclone,
hey AW
Shoredump. Looks very unpredictable. By Craig’s readings, they are all different , complex variables and inputs and the machinations that are at work within absolutely interest me.
It’s either going to pump somewhere or make some serious geomorphological changes to various parts of the coasts over a broad spectrum of land mass or just go off on a tangent to elsewhere.
I love how Swellnet has staff that can explain all this to us.
It’s a wait and see this one. AW
Thank you. This was really interesting reading - subtle and comprehensive.
I currently subscribe to swellnet , surfline and recently picked up buoyweather who I originally used about 15 years ago . Surfline is good for their worldwide surfcams and long range tide times ( which the depth of high and low is a bit out ) and that’s about it in my opinion . Craigs forecast notes for Indonesia are by far way more accurate than any other surf forecasting website I’ve used , I don’t surf anywhere else and have dropped windy & surf forecast because they simply aren’t consistent enough with wind direction and swell size . I took up buoyweather again as a comparison to swellnet because I can pin point a location with them and get a reasonably accurate tide time . I’m giving them a run for a year and see how they perform compared to swellnet . Keep up the great work SN .
LOL , sounds like you like to be very prepared before surfing .
Do you find time to surf....... or do you use your spare time all up studying the forecasts ?
# forecast # too many choices
Before I travel to remote locations I like to know what my chances of waves are going to be and what boards I should take. I need someone like Craig to spell it out for me as I’m a dummy when it comes to reading charts, that’s why I subscribe , reading the notes makes it a whole lot easier for me in deciding which spot I’m going to go to . Doesn’t take much time to read the notes and as I’m retired it leaves ample time to hit the waves . Gone are the days of turning up somewhere after spending 2 days to get there only to get skunked .
Gotcha @ super freak
Strike missions or long hauls ?
Craig for Pm
Qld King tide is tomorrow morning
https://www.msq.qld.gov.au/tides/king-tides
Cape Bowling Green , might be bowling !
Any predictions on that ?
Or Harvey Bay ,Bundaberg ?
Or Boneyards ( the good one)
Alfred has now reached Category 4 and it looks like the models are keeping it offshore for now with GFS now aligning more with ECMWF regarding the strength and timing off the upper trough on Monday which will push it away from the coast.
Latest GFS run (and a long time from now). Wouldn't that be funny - not!
I’ll take a hard pass on that one thanks IB.
Ah, shut
Solid storm at the moment with gusts in excess of 100kts.
Just crawling around at the moment, probably the last 24 hrs was it's best window for intensification.
Going to be a really interesting scenario if it lingers around off the SEQLD coast next week as to how long it retains it's TC status. It's likely to become a hybrid sub-tropical system but even so, I'm struggling to come up with a similar analogue system that has hung out in that region for so long- if that is what comes to pass.
In other words, this could be an historic system.
Could see West Stradbroke fire up for the first time in 50 years.
SSTs in the region pretty favourable.
How soon we forget, https://www.goldcoaststories.com.au/the-cyclone-of-1954/
Apparently waves crested the dunes at Byron Bay and were rolling down the Main Street past the Great Northern.
And wouldn’t that be fun now! Jokes aside we are not prepared. But good waves are likely somewhere.
Heavy , the round about becomes a slab .
That's the one mum remembers as a girl. I'll contact her to ask where this one will pass over the coast.
Yeah the longevity of this system will be incredible, possibly near a fortnight.
Interesting that the seasonal climate models picked the cooling of SST in March, right where Alfred will sit over a week out..
We’re in qld for a family holiday the second half of March. Think it might still be going?
I was thinking exactly the same thing. Genuinely captivated now by this one.
Goodbye sand .
Goodbye V. Walls .
"Six feet to twenty feet, and everything in between."
No problem, I'm sorted.
"The Quiver Killer is one of our all time best selling and most loved models. Popular around the world. It was one of the original modern hybrid shapes, that worked in all types of conditions. It can be adjusted with fins, for waves of all types and sizes.
"A literal one board quiver, thus the name."
yeah stu, dig this stick for travelling, just a selection of fins to suit size variants. here's to a light boardbag :-)
Hard to see a situation playing out that doesn’t just involve a whole bunch of coastal carnage even if it does stay offshore?
5-6m with gale SE?
I'm fine with an almighty bank-buster.
We've had a month of swell and not a grain of sand has shifted- we're still mired in a very mediocre sand formation and I'm sick to death of it. it's been this way for over 6 months.
Let's clear the chess board and start again.
Bahahahaha!
@fr76 I'm with you on that one. SC has had too much sand for too long, time for a change up.
Latest EC and Access runs have a SEQLD coastal crossing.
Though next weekend, not the coming weekend and in a much weakened form. Would be good to get some rain from it eventually though. We'll see.
No. No rain. Just waves. No more of that endless rain.
There is currently a pleasure craft / sailing boat (in pink) sitting in the middle of Alfred
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:154.5/centery:-19.3/z…
That's a great little program RKG...couldnt find the Chinese on there :-)
"Addressing the Chinese task group’s activities so far, Capie concluded, “What they’ve done is consistent with international law. That’s what lets us sail through the South China Sea and through the Taiwan Strait and stand up for freedom of navigation and international law.
But let’s also not pretend that they’ve come south because they want to see the penguins!”
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/02/chinese-navy-penetrates-de…
bwahahaha funny fker
i'm sure you guys have more interesting stuff behind a paywall, though I found this one quite mesmerising
https://zoom.earth/maps/satellite/#view=-27.04,154.99,5z/date=2025-02-2…
Freedom of navigation, what a croc of shit. Freedom for Israel to navigate the complete destruction of Palestine.
Link shouldve come with a trigger warning ;-)
AgiesCam starting to muscle up
Bowls!
Looks so fun, fringed with Coconut palms, could do with more subtropic surf breaks.
Nuggety storm surf, no long lines in this one it would seem.
King tides are a worry
Some great discussion here from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center..
"FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 18P WILL REMAIN IN A COMPETING STEERING
ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT, THE TRACK MOTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND NEARLY
QUASI-STATIONARY AT TIMES. AFTER TAU 48, THE TRACK SPEED WILL
INCREASE AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO CURVE SOUTHEASTWARD. TC 18P WILL
WEAKEN CONTINUALLY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT INTRODUCED BY HIGH VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE WEST AND
UPWELLING OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO 65KTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. "
It's still bouncing around all over the place. Choose you own adventure depending on which model you want to look at. Latest BOM model is an outlier and has it coming ashore at Byron on Thursday where GFS and EC and have it moving back up and out to sea of Bundaberg
Interesting week ahead...
Latest GFS updates throws another curve-ball and shifts it out to the east-northeast super quick early next week.
Likely an anomaly..
Goes to show how unreliable the things are. Go to beach in the morning and check it
About time I subscribed, been a long time lurker on these pages, even thrown in the odd comment and felt lame doing so, now I can do it guilt free :) Great article Craig.
Craig (and other knowledgeable folk): when you talk about upper atmospheric winds, is this the upper flow of air we learnt about at school re: Hadley Cells, Ferrel Cells etc? i.e. Equator heated most, so we get low pressure systems, and then that air flows (at altitude) north/south before descending around the tropics?
After staying offshore early next week thanks to that upper trough, we're starting to see model consensus regarding a retro-grade back west and coastal crossing later week and across south-east Queensland..
Oooohhhhh
The swell graphs gone bananas this morning after a real scaling back late yesty
Fingers crossed something else eventuates
Yep, all models now suggesting a crossing mid next week somewhere between Wide Bay to SEQLD.
12Z Thursday. GFS, UK, EC.
Lovely charts IB!
Oh no. Horrendous outcome.
That's quite a scary prospect.
Yeah, thought it warranted posting. Was doing the severe weather outlook for NZ and glanced towards the NW.
(@Craig, that's Visual Weather from IBL)
Far canal, hope not.
Latest EC update.. The AIFS model (light blue line) which has been fairly reliable still has it staying out to sea, but the other EC members push it inland. We watch and wait..
Red and green tracks equals Richmond River catchment nightmare.
Pop quiz: which model doesn't like New Zealand?
Elle McPherson?
Gotta love the little swirl in the Tasman, haha
Still holding out a little hope for the track to turn into a mysto NW swell system to light up a few novelties.
note the different Qld wave recorder buoy readings. Bundaberg late last night (I think it was) went from S-SE 6 second swell to N-NE 14 seconds, and is just now starting to show a push in size. Wide Bay buoy is yet to start showing a change, but it cannot be too far away. Might be interesting to track the swell arrival through the buoy readings, plus get an early heads up, as it runs down the coast over the next few days. https://www.qld.gov.au/environment/coasts-waterways/beach/monitoring/wa…
Also, what I at first thought might have been inflow feeder bands, but upon looking at the satellite imagery video might be outflow bands instead, [Craig can comment] the upper level cloud associated with the cyclone is just now coming over the Sunny Coast and making its way over Brisbane and onto the G.C. (8am). https://www.windy.com/-Satellite-satellite?satellite,-25.046,153.018,6,…
Current observations for Cato Reef. Winds around 60kn and increasing. Still SE. https://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ60801/IDQ60801.94394.shtml
Now it’s looking epic again.
Oh no, I refreshed again and it looks distrastrous.
Alfred stubborn born n bred queenslander doesn’t want to travel south ..hopefully he whips up something down here for us cockroaches
Could be some epic rainfall (pending where he crosses). I’ve read a prediction of 300-500mm in 48 hrs Goldy/NR - that’s not good for anyone
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/expert-warns-tropical-cy…
Pushing south? Especially rain for NNSW.
Fantastic video @Sprout, thanks. Watched the whole thing - fascinating and terrifying stuff.
Yeah interesting, the YT algorithm popped him up recently, does a couple a day.
hope it goes south @sprout, we r flying in from Japan to Brisbane 8am thurs morning, hoping the p[lane gets diverted to the sunny coast and not Sydney or cairns
Good analysis
The AIS signal from the pleasure craft that was right in the cyclone is from a solo rower rowing across the pacific
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-02/search-for-rower-aurimas-mockus-…
Holy shit! What kind of hell is this poor fella living through right now!?
I'm not religous, but saying a little prayer for old mate to get through the other side of this.
Gonna be one incredible story to tell.
Pre Alfred- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/26/blisters-reefs-a…
Post Alfred- has been rescued. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/03/navy-ship-on-res…
Here is an New Zealand cyclone forecaster today, that doesnt do caffeine a couple of times a day.
Alfred is going to be messy...
WeatherWatch is an incredible channel - highly recommend to anyone looking to watch/listen to a few forecasts a week.
A warning re WW. Philip Duncan seems to think that GFS is the only models out there, and will often put all his eggs in that basket.
True but I often don’t mind that - his explanation of the underpinning of systems and the higher level theory is pretty good.
Agree on the second part :-)
He’s pretty good
Now EC is keeping it out to sea until Friday evening, mental.
By mental , Is that a good thing or bad thing Craig?
Better for surf and also for flood scenarios.
Yep, and the 12Z EC run also very slow.
I'm O/S until next week...the comments are making riveting reading.
Hope everyone stays safe and after that, hope you all get waves...
Murwillumbah & Coffs people may have to move to higher ground if they get 500mm.
Most of Lismore have left the town last flood. Fuel up the boats and jet skis.
https://meteologix.com/au/model-charts/euro/new-south-wales/accumulated…
tonights ABC weather update. Bellingen has had 280mm
Two day rain est peak totals 400mm
The frogs are calling
12Z run of GFS, UK and EC models at 00Z Thursday. Note, GFS and UK very similar, while EC has a significant easterly bias.
Thanks IB!
How big does Kirra hold?!?
(And my pleasure!)
Not much more I'd say. Looks 8ft to possibly 10ft take-offs right now.
Alfred served a hot mixed course today.
Noosa may have many retired day traders, surfin with a phantom keyboard... lost in space...
some kind person edited this Sunday session.
Sharing is caring !
Any updates on storm track ?
Crossing seems to keep moving slightly south on each run but we'll see.
https://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
My 17 hour flight is due to land at Brisbane at 7am Friday morning.
ECMWF says no.
Let me know if you need a pickup from MCY Ben
A mid-flight diversion to Nadi wouldn't be viewed too harshly.
Stay safe !
flights are back on.. did you end up getting through @thermalben?
Yep. Managed to get an earlier flight that arrived Thurs AM.
ace mate, good result!
Details of Tropical Cyclone Alfred 22U at 1:00 am AEST:
Intensity: category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 27.4 degrees South, 156.3 degrees East , 325 kilometres east of Brisbane and 300 kilometres east northeast of Gold Coast .
Movement: west at 7 kilometres per hour .
Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue its approach towards the southeast Queensland coast, with the far western edge already impacting the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.
Alfred is a category 2 cyclone, and is forecast to maintain this intensity as it continues to approach the southeast Queensland coast. The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast during Friday, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.
Six to Twenty Feet and everything in between
Goldie Local Wave Height Check...
3rd March 2025 SLSQ Beaches Closed Warning > [No Surfing] beach walking, swimming!)
This is a rare Warning addressed at Surfers to keep out of the Surf!
https://lifesaving.com.au/news/surf-life-saving-queensland-cyclone-alfr…
6th March (Afternoon!) Premier backs up SLSQ directive [No Surfing]
Cyclone Alfred Wave Heights up to...
15 metres Wide Bay North Monday 3rd March 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-05/tropical-cyclone-alfred-erosion-…
https://www.willyweather.com.au/news/174544/tropical+cyclone+alfred+for…
12.30 metres Main Beach Late on Wednesday 5th March 2025
15.24 metres Tweed Heads Wednesday 11:00 am 5th March 2025
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-06/cyclone-alfred-stalling-at-sea-l…
https://www.goldcoastbulletin.com.au/news/gold-coast/weather/tropical-c…
16.52 metres Gold Coast on Thursday 9:00 am 6th March 2025 (Buoy Damaged!)
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/what-to-expect-from-alfreds-dangero…
All of these above record Wave Heights were repeated on same day...Evening news.
+
1.67 metres rising Storm Surge reported on Midnight 5/6th March 2025 (Surge rises until Fri/Sat xing)
BOM warns of Dangerous Storm Surge causing Major Flooding if Alfred times landfall with High Tide.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/australasia/cyclone-alfred-pat…
This Cyclonic Storm Surge seems way more powerful & higher than predicted...
It keeps taking all by surprise...tbb thinks these piddly predictions will be swamped.
We're going higher & faster...Storm Surge gotta be 2m and rising >
see Bribie Breakthru days ago > Seawall Washover > Viking Car Park is not breached but plundered
It's still rising...lock in 2m+
6th March Premier doubles down on Surfers to back off...STFAH.
Talk of Big Beach Fines $16,000 for any Sky-larkers
https://thenightly.com.au/australia/australian-news-and-politics-live-c…
https://www.pedestrian.tv/online/cyclone-alfred-surfers-queensland-tikt…
Goldie Local Wotz New [Next Level] Wipeout Live Report
Authorities are now really concerned of High Tide < > Cyclonic Cross.
2nd Bribie Breakthru is Happening
https://www.facebook.com/couriermail/videos/premier-david-crisafulli-sa…
https://www.facebook.com/thesunshinecoastdaily/videos/%EF%B8%8F-the-fir…
Waves washing over Seaway Breakwall (Keep Off!)
Foamies filling Nth Straddie / Froggies
https://www.instagram.com/couriermail/reel/DG2Ngd7Ou3P/
Waves rip up Currumbin Vikings Car Park
https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/aussies-stranded-at-look…
Beachgoers with Pets risk being pinned against Dune Cliffs...High Risk Rescues!
Just getting wild now!
Stay safe mate. This is storm is no joke.
Yes thanks, it’s a bit of an unknown quantity, still 8 to 10 hours to go before crossing over Brisbane !
How's everyone doing ?
Not too extreme inland a bit, on the Goldy
The eye now hovering in Northern Moreton Bay , Lots of flooding in low lying areas expected , and no beaches left.
No power cuts here yet !
Just had a look at Main Beach , worse weather ever, even after downgrading to tropical low and 100 kms away.
95 kmph gust at seaway at 3 pm
The power of a cyclone.
Alfie’s a serious tropical depression too !
Hi Craig, love your analysis of weather events, any chance of a follow-up article, What did steer Alfred ?
He was a pulsating beast. Someone said he had a elongated core? Seemed like he was inhaling and exhaling along the journey, do cyclones calm at night?
Where did he actually cross?
Surely it'll be a much studied cyclone.
Just curious, your work is always much appreciated thx
Thoughts on the chances of another significant cyclone for QLD this season/year?
Nobody bothered answer but that's cool as my question was facetious in nature anyway... i just wanted to note it on the record that something was coming.
It's been very clear and evident the Aus east coast was going to get another extreme weather anomaly. The stacking and force feeding of the Coral Sea has been clearly evident to observe. The equatorial zone east-west flow has been extreme and enhanced by cyclical revolving systems force feeding it from far away. Everything looks and feels out of whack.
Once it's loaded with the fuel it's just a matter of fine tuning the highs. Funny how the one elongated n/s from fiji feeding it perfectly and the second spun under tassie pinching it up.
It was easy to spot this was coming. All you gotta do is zoom out.
'that's just the way the weather works nowadays" derp derp derp.
Yeah the SST anomalies off the NSW South Coast fed and strengthened this low beyond model forecasts.
Must be nice in that paracosm of yours believing SST anomalies were the major factor. I guess you were the "just gotta vaccinate through scamdemic" guy after all.
Shall we double down and say - crystal ball says east coast / major Aus events not done yet?....
What's with the smartarsery?
"It was easy to spot this was coming. All you gotta do is zoom out."
Please show your methodology for zooming out, in order to easily spot this event well in advance.
I guess it's just a response to the response.
"show your methodology for zooming out" - I mentioned that in my reply already above... Coral Sea flow/force feed... high pressure role/anomaly (manipulation?). Not in heavy detail, but I doubt you'd take it seriously anyway.
All good. Just noting the same methodology / observation is seeing a similar pattern repeating so we'll see I guess.
For the record, your initial question was "Thoughts on the chances of another significant cyclone for QLD this season/year?".
That's a fair question, though it can't be answered in any detail. General consensus is that we will see less tropical cyclones each season, but if/when they do form, there is an increased probability that they will be stronger.
However, I'm a pedant, and there's a big difference between a "Tropical Cyclone for Qld" and a significant mid-latitude low pressure system in the Central/Southern Tasman Sea.
First of all, Qld is a big place. Would you draw parallels between TC Alfred and say, a Cat 3 coastal crossing in Cooktown? Personally, I wouldn't.
Moreover, a tropical cyclone is a different kind of weather event to a Tasman Low. It's in a different ocean basin, has different underlying mechanics and steering patterns, and delivers a much different kind of swell/wind/weather event.
Your reasoning doesn't make any sense either ("Coral Sea flow/force feed... high pressure role/anomaly (manipulation?)").
Your inclusion of the word 'manipulation' - and then the following slight at Craig re: vaccines - suggests you're just here to shit stir anyway, rather than contribute to the discussion where we all benefit from combined learning.
So, I'll just leave it there.
Yes, that was my question verbatim. And I was a touch surprised at what showed tbh. Though Brisbane and Sydney smashed does make sense.
"less tropical cyclones each season" yes, agreed but I'd close that out with more impactful than blanket a "stronger". Blunt force, yada yada.
QLD is big. Whilst being born there, I now merely observe from afar. My observations in my current locale certainly affect my worldview and comments here. Cat 5 in Cooktown does have a ring to it and no that doesnt compare to Alfred.
My reasoning makes sense to me, and has been effective in flagging Alfred, this event and many others closer to home. Is 'manipulation' a bad word for a pedant?
I've told you my expectation on what may still be to come so we can leave it there and see.
Best,
shit stirrer.
"I've told you my expectation on what may still be to come".
"crystal ball says east coast / major Aus events not done yet".
That's not a prediction. There are zero specifics, no timeline, and you're covering a very large region (Australia).
Of course, there will be more major weather events in Australia (hail storms, bushfires, floods, coastal erosion) in the months and years to come. And it is quite likely that some of them may break records, or otherwise display extreme characteristics we have not seen before.
So, ironically, a statement like yours also can't be wrong. The only way you'd be wrong would be if we were to never experience a major weather event anywhere in Australia, ever again.
I'm more interested in the science behind why this is occurring. For example, as the planet slowly heats up, the resulting warmer atmosphere has the capacity to hold more moisture. This means rain events can sometimes be bigger than predicted, of which one of the flow on effects are increased risks of flash flooding.
Making broad statements like "major Aus events not done yet" doesn't contribute anything to the discussion.
I thought you were just at the end of Summer and the season, so I was referring to an imminent time frame though I guess I wasnt pedantically clear... an open ender like you describe would be weird. I'm not making predictions for 2027 :)
Seemingly it was 2 to 2 1/2 weeks last time. So let's put the same timeline now. And no I'm not talking about bushfires. Coastal low / cyclone / trough flood event. Outlier or anomalous events like Alfred and the Tasman bomb... unless those were just the "new normal".
I'm more interested in reality. For example, mans ego exceeds atmospheric potential.
My non contribution to this discussion is hereby respectfully concluded.
"I thought you were just at the end of Summer and the season, so I was referring to an imminent time frame".
Yes, we are drawing near the end of the cyclone season.
However, we are just at the start of the season for Tasman Lows.
Hence why it's problematic to equate the two.
Give the extraordinarily late start to Coral Sea cyclone activity this year, and given the anomalous positive SSTs, if the atmospherics are right, it's possible we could see another cyclone in the Coral Sea in the next few months (yes, beyond the 'season' - for example in 2015, TC Raquel spun up on 30 June and lasted until 5 July).
But right now the MJO is fading across the Western/Central Pacific, and won't return to our region for a few months.
But, since you've put it into specifics - you're expecting a coastal low / cyclone / trough flood event within the next 2.5 weeks - let's wait and see what happens (by 'coast' I assume you mean the greater populated regions between SE Qld and the Illawarra).
A quick glance at the broadscale synoptics suggests the next week won't see anything out of the ordinary, but I'll keep a watch.
Shearer says charts Thursday should look "insane" with a deep low (970-980hPa).... Craigos welcomes Tam and we seem to have Cat 2 with a conflict with NZ. Not quite the fallout or exact spot/plot I expected but I'll take the timing and outcome/event generally on the money!
Whats the Michael Jackson Orchestra(MJO) currently playing? How'd ya watch go?
You're not claiming this, are ya?
Here's some light reading:
"Large-Scale Influences on the Evolution of Winter Subtropical Maritime Cyclones Affecting Australia’s East Coast"
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/mwre/141/7/mwr-d-12-00312.1…
Short and simple: 'tis the season for these kinds of lows.
any hinterland stompbox guitar dudes out there looking for a performance pseudonym, please consider 'Tasman Lows'.
haha yes!