Interesting stuff
“Coronavirus: expert warns infection could reach 60% of world's population”
So that’s 60% of 7.7 billion people which is about 4.6 billion.
With, say, a 1% mortality rate, that works out to 46 million dead.
Maybe unlikely but still food for though.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/11/coronavirus-expert-warns-…
Stu it reminds me of the bankers of Braavos in Game of Thrones, no matter who is in power, there will be deficits and they will lend and profit from it all...
Some pop culture references are lost on me, VJ. You see, I've never watched a Game of Thrones episode in my life.
Other voids in my life:
I've never heard a Taylor Swift song.
Same goes Kanye West.
Doubt we'll be talking about corona virus this time next month.
Interesting stuff.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-11/evolution-of-surfboards-to-be-ex…
Don’t reckon FR? Another overhyped disease of the moment?
Spanish flu killed around 50 million so on one hand I figure we’re overdue for something major, but maybe modern medicine and the logistics and communications of wealthy nation states have the upper hand.
personally i think its a beat up.....the big players taking control again.
Beat up ?
We all know Scomo is utterly beholden to business. His constituency is corporations, not the people.
And he just crippled most of Australia’s biggest industries- education, tourism, fishing , real estate- from a standing start . What do you reckon he’s privy to ?
Don’t look at the statistics as they’re obviously completely removed from reality. Look at what governments are doing. China has openly stated that they’re on the equivalent of a war footing.
This is very far from a beat up. I hope I’m wrong.....can’t see it though. This is like nothing seen in our lifetimes.
You might be right Blowin.
But I can't see it.
I'm looking at how the money reacts- the markets and they are barely moving.
A thousand deaths? OK, lets say the figures are fudged and it's ten thousand, fifty thousand.
All due respect, not even a blip.
If we're still talking about this in a months time, I'll owe you a Sixpack.
Wrong choice of words on my part ,what i meant is that maybe this is a ploy by China to flex its muscles in a different way showing the world how beholden to them we are with trade ,tourism exports etc and how they pretty much control us .Scare the hell out of people,bring them under control by showing them whos boss.
you think they've created a virus outbreak as a ploy to bring their trading partners to heel?
get off the bucket bongs and you-tube channels, before its too late.
ha ha im with freeride on this one.
If we were going to throw out crazy conspiracy theorys, just for some fun.
Probably make more sense that it was against China or Blowin, we know Blowin hates China.
Freeride - Everyone thinks that the Coronavirus is nothing more than a strong flu.....except that’s not quite how those who actually know about it are behaving as though it’s anything but normal.
Who are you more likely to believe ? Punter X with a few thousand on the share market who constitutes most share activity or the Governments of China , Australia, Singapore etc who have just wiped billions from their economies ?
yeah, we'll see.
I don't see billions being wiped from economies.
You could be right.
After, what 3weeks? we've only got a thousand deaths?
I don't see much to worry about.
That’s because you’re taking those figures as fact.
Cairns has had $200 million in cancelled bookings in ten days. 95 percent of the crayfishing industry which is the backbone of the mid west has evaporated. Their backup economy of Chinese tourism is gone.
Education is Australia’s third biggest industry. It’s lost an estimated $8 B if the students can’t get here . That’s just surface effects.
OK ....this sounds harsh and I certainly don’t want anyone getting sick or dying, but if the Coronavirus was a political party I’d vote for it in a flash.
Potential of local manufacturing resurgence, immigration massively reduced , China too busy with their own shit to bother the world.....beautiful.
It’s like War of the Worlds.....the virus stopped the global takeover.
Considering the standard flu kills 36,000 people in the United States alone every year, it’s pretty easy to see the Corona virus as a bit of a non-event so far.
More important is the number of people who contract the flu and then compare death rate. Flu in developed countries prob hovers around 0.05%.
At moment China at about 2.3% or so for Coronavirus. Put 2% against the number that contracted flu, then look at the infection rate and you can understand the concern.
I wonder if we could run pricing on the option of delivery of a sixpack of beer (choose strike price) expiry 12/3/20, European exercise (ie no early exercise), delivered between Ballina area and mid North coast... Watch the gammas in the last week! Will it end ITM? Stay tuned...
The question which no one who is pushing the “regular flu theory“ seems to be able to answer is - Why are the governments of the world behaving the way they are if it’s regular flu ?
Scomo would rather lose an arm than jeopardise the free flow of commerce , yet here he is acting as though the halt of commerce is a necessary consequence of slowing down a regular flu.
That doesn’t add up.
What’s more likely ? That Scomo has suddenly decided that eradicating the threat of the common runny nose is more important than the economy which he was willing to prioritise over the global climate with a fortnight ago
Or
China - and other governments- are easing the idea of the potential coming pandemic onto their populations so as not to create societal panic by gaming the numbers ?
As for “ the money “ knowing which way to jump....the stock market usually has a melt-up before it crashes , meaning that there’s a rush of exuberant overconfidence just when people should be nervous . Everyone watches to see what everyone else is doing. If no one is panicking then they relax and vice versa . It’s a feedback loop of stupidity.
The market is reactionary.
This is Australia
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2020/02/centre-alliance-must-block-sup…
In regard to the stock markets they tend to be forward looking so possibly looking past the current situation and looking at surges in production to replenish depleted supply lines.
WHO are saying up 18 months for vaccine so anyone's guess what happens in the time until then.
well, I put my money where my mouth is and bought a tranche of ETF's when the price dipped a little.
so we'll see.
FR you could go have a look at XJO performance just after Fukushima if you want to (draw a long bow) toward an allegory of disaster and index performance...
Blowin I read that gas stuff. What a terrible outcome for everyone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_South_Wales_Corps
cycles of history...
And here it comes....
China will now ramp pressure on other nations to relinquish border controls which are harming China’s economy. The CCP doesn’t give a fuck about its own people, beyond anything required to maintain control over them and retain a passively oppressed society. The CCP cares far, far less for the populations of other nations.
They know that if they lose the ability to contrive domestic economic stability in China they will also lose the ability to control the population . The CCP knows that continued border controls employed by other nations, which have so far been successful in slowing the international spread of the virus, will soon render the Chinese economy untenable. They are therefore attempting to sacrifice the health of the global population in order to maintain CCP party power within China.
They will try any means to pressure foreign government to prioritise the Chinese economy over the health of their own people. This is despite the CCP employing the very same travel restrictions internally and their quarantine of entire cities ....they don’t want other countries to use the methods of protection they use themselves.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-aviation/chinas-aviatio…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/china-lashes-out-at-…
If the problem is truly global then the CCP are off the hook with their own population as they can claim an act of god. Watch China try to spread the virus.
Edit : Got word that vid wasn’t the result of Wuhan flu . Took it off just in case. Too ghoulish.
Blowin, This is all adding up to the fact that I may soon be able to afford to eat lobster.
...and stop picking on poor old Scomo...I wouldn't want to be in his shoes right now and I doubt any of us could do better.
adam12 is the new blindboy - comments (uninformedly) on every topic and spouts bullshiezen thereon. Got to love his child-like naivety but gets it wrong so often it's starting to get annoying.
@D-Rex
Did i met you in Indo last year?
I met some guy, nice chilled guy, but conversation turned to Swellnet for some reason one night and he wasn't a fan at all of Blind Boy views bagged the shit out of him, made me laugh.
Hey Optimist:
Gotta take exception to your point about ScoMo. There’s so many missteps, false starts and bone-headed choices made over the past 6months. There’s a lot of space for improvement in his performance. Many of his failures stem from his inability / unwillingness to consider expert advice. Bloke has a messiah complex imho.
So, in short, save your sympathy for someone who deserves it.
Agreed Etarip, most of us could do better than Smoko, all it would take is empathy and a view to the future.
DRex, do you know who Blindboy is? I'm happy to be included in his company.
Dis is spot on ... suck on this you big sack of shit in chief
Without activism you don't have a conscience or soul, you are just sheep following the great leader.........................Blind Boy was our best activist.
It’s more than poor intuition. It’s a blind faith in his own intuition, regardless of the evidence in front of him or the advice being provided.
@Optimist
Before you even reply, just remember, the haters are always going hate, you have just got to accept that, you can't fight it it here, not sure why but this forum is extremely left leaning.
Scomo or Trump doesn't matter what they do or don't do, it's never going to be good enough in their eyes, they could shit out nuggets of gold for everyone and they would complain there might still be crap on the gold.
I haven’t seen so much baloney since the day I shopped at Vince’s continental deli last month!
Blind boy, sheepdog and Big Wayne , and others, always had something interesting to say unlike the monotonous claptrap some of you specialise in.
I’d rather be left than a fascist apologist for corruption and shit fuckery ID.
Scomo or Trump doesn’t matter what they do, it’s never going to be bad enough for change in thier eyes, they could take a giant shit on the society’s they govern the right would revel in it like it was nuggets of gold.
"It’s more than poor intuition. It’s a blind faith in his own intuition, regardless of the evidence in front of him or the advice being provided."
...there's a word for that...
love his contributions but the terms 'cognitive dissonance' and 'confirmation bias' spring to mind, irony much...
"I’d rather be left than a fascist apologist for corruption and shit fuckery "
problem is, the left got just as good as the right at this, as they crowded out the corridors of power
cream rising and all that ....ppffff...
Oh yeah, the left has definitely got issues, they haven’t been immune to corruption and lip service to the public. And there are some pretty radical positions.
What I can’t understand are the defenders of the current LNP and they’re leader. The corruption and contempt for the public interest is blatant. Secrecy, half truths and blatant lies are their tools, that are easily seen,
I honestly can’t see what good outcomes Scomo has achieved. The list of bad is quite long. Where are the nuggets of gold?
I agree soggydog, wholehearedly, he's been really shit, and getting away with murder. how?
very similar to trump, in the face of a woefully inadequate opposition
only difference is, trump is successful (at what he does, like it or not) and smoco is an abject failure
I honestly can't think of anything he's gotten right, ideologically or politically, besides slamming labor...
Have it cunts