COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 07:44 pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

indo-dreaming Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 06:38 pm new

blindboy wrote:

Thanks for proving my point with the quotes from your links, Indo. Do you really believe that being the most heavily policed state in Australia puts Victoria in the same category as Myanmar, Belarus, Russia etc? In police states people get arrested and jailed without trial simply for dissenting from government policy.

Newspapers and web sites get shut down, political opponents of the government are banned from standing for election. Anything like that happened in Victoria lately? Or are you just spouting inflammatory bullshit?

Yes things could be worst and they are in some countries, but that doesn't change the fact Victoria has become a police state during Covid, nobody can deny this, it's just reality.

indo-dreaming Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 06:53 pm new

No idea what numbers are correct, but this footage shows a very big crowd.

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GuySmiley Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 06:56 pm new

That’s so funny info, great laugh, you hoping for a gig at the Melbourne Comedy Festival?

blindboy Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 06:57 pm new

No mate, it is not a police state. It is a democratically elected government implementing policies with substantial community support. You will have your chance to vote them out. To carry on with the nonsense that it is a police state means that YOU are the threat to democracy, YOU are the one that wants to undermine a legitimate government because you disagree with their policies. YOU are the one inciting violence and justifying it. Mate you would be perfect working for the government in a real police state.

indo-dreaming Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 06:57 pm new

Fliplid wrote:

Got to love a politician who stands by his words and principles.

Where do we find one?

https://twitter.com/SuxHypocrisy/status/1461647301122822146

God that's some pretty heavy straw clutching.

indo-dreaming Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 07:00 pm new

blindboy wrote:

No mate, it is not a police state. It is a democratically elected government implementing policies with substantial community support. You will have your chance to vote them out. To carry on with the nonsense that it is a police state means that YOU are the threat to democracy, YOU are the one that wants to undermine a legitimate government because you disagree with their policies. YOU are the one inciting violence and justifying it. Mate you would be perfect working for the government in a real police state.

Inciting violence? How so?

Seriously the shit that you type is ridiculous and it's honestly scary that you worked in the education system.

blindboy Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 07:06 pm new

Mate language has consequences. You use inflammatory language and lie about the behaviour of government in a way that is likely to encourage people to be more extreme. Then there is your consistent advocacy for violence as a solution to situations it can only make worse.

......but back to thevpoint, what evidence have you got for it being a police state? Nothing at all as usual.

Patrick0710 Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 07:25 pm new

Using the literal definition, yes, Victoria is a police state. But then so is the whole planet at this point in time, even the land of the free. Even Sweden!
Of course, unstated but understood in the definition is ‘under normal circumstances’ ie there’s no war or global pandemic etc.
Police states also don’t allow citizens to challenge government decisions in the Supreme Court, which as we know has happened three or four times in Victoria over the past 18 months.

Vic Local Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 07:31 pm new

"Mate language has consequences."
Spot on blindboy. There's a well known saying "It didn't start with gas chambers".
This absolute bullshit by the mob about living in a police state does have consequences. Just the other day some nutter called on people to bring guns to the next rally to shoot a democratically elected leader. He wouldn't have come up with that bullshit unless he genuinely believed Victoria was a police state and shooting the premier was somehow honourable. He made the transition from extreme language to extreme actions.
Extemist language leads to violence and ID, you should be ashamed of yourself.

indo-dreaming Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:17 pm new

blindboy wrote:

Mate language has consequences. You use inflammatory language and lie about the behaviour of government in a way that is likely to encourage people to be more extreme. Then there is your consistent advocacy for violence as a solution to situations it can only make worse.

......but back to thevpoint, what evidence have you got for it being a police state? Nothing at all as usual.

What garbage, i only condone violence when protecting one self or ones property, you on the other hand condone and justify violence in the form of rioting plus destruction of private and public property.

I already provide the definition of a police state and showed that Victoria has clearly ticked all the boxes needed and provided a number of current media articles to support the view. (there is more)

The left was already suggesting Victoria was a police state years ago i don't agree on that though.

"Legal bodies war of Victorian police state"
https://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2004/s1231000.htm

"VICTORIA: THE POLICE STATE"
https://libertyvictoria.org.au/content/victoria-police-state

"Victoria -building a police state on the quiet"
https://youthlaw.asn.au/victoria-police-state-on-the-quiet/

But during Covid we 100% became a police state, we had some of the strictest lockdown measures in not just Australia but the world, pretty much everything in our life was controlled by government and police, if you didn't abide you were fined.

That is a police state, and a big reason people are out on the streets is because people are now waking up to the fact of what we have been through and control we have been under from state and police and have a degree of fear that people like Dan have had a taste of the power over the people and want more.

Im sure i will forget some aspects but.

-Severely restricted ability to travel, not just internationally or between states, but even restricted to a few kilometres from home police can fine you if you break the rules.

- Stay at home curfew, if found out and about after a certain time, police can fine you.

- Activities like Golf and fishing banned, if police catch you you received huge fines.

-Children prevented from using playgrounds and other facilities, police can fine parents if caught.

- Police can fine you for not wearing a face mask

-Police can arrest you for a facebook post questioning things (plenty of examples)

- Right to protest was taken away, if found protesting can be fined even jailed, police even used tear gas and stinger bombs and rubber bullets in September, this is almost unheard of in Australia

- at-least one example of media rights being restricted due to political aspects

- Many business prevented from opening and many people prevented from working police can fine if dont abide

-People prevented from doing pretty much anything outside of their homes unless it was deemed essential, fines for people not abiding by restrictions

"Government insider calls out Victoria's 'police state' tactics"
https://9now.nine.com.au/a-current-affair/coronavirus-victorian-governm…

"Why I was right about Victoria's police state"
https://www.afr.com/politics/why-i-was-right-about-victoria-s-police-st…

"Beyond the police state to COVID-safe: life after lockdown will need a novel approach"
https://theconversation.com/beyond-the-police-state-to-covid-safe-life-…

"The Australian 'police state' is nothing new"
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-australi…

"Daniel Andrews is accused of running a 'police state like apartheid South Africa' as he makes Victorians apply for permits to go to work and take their kids to childcare"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8594743/Daniel-Andrews-accused…

"Covid Mandates Are Turning Australia Into A Police State"
https://www.eviemagazine.com/post/covid-mandates-are-turning-australia-…

"the police state is her thanks to Covid" (this one Sydney based though)
https://www.sydneycriminallawyers.com.au/blog/the-police-state-is-here-…

"Andrews turns Victoria into his police state"https://www.heraldsun.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=HSWEB_WRE170_…

I could go on with more..but yeah, its pointless anyway, because you will just say the same thing,

bluediamond Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:15 pm new

Holy shit, that vid indo posted shows easily a crowd upwards of over a hundred thousand. How come the media said only 10,000 or so?
Also chatted to a mate yesterday who went to the Perth one. He was guessing 50,000 there, but media reported 4,000.
Anyone wanna explain why the media are saying Melbourne only had 10,000 when the pictures clearly show at least a hundred thousand?
Btw, loving your posts Shortenism. I guess you were right with your numbers too!

Fliplid Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:16 pm new

“God that's some pretty heavy straw clutching.”

I took his most recent comment to be firmly against government mandated vaccines whereas previously he was all for government mandated vaccines. In both instances it was unambiguous as to what he said. My understanding (and I might be wrong) is that they are two opposing views from the same guy. Point being, which statement is the one he truly believes in.

bluediamond Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:20 pm new

Also, regarding Rotterdam. Lived there for 2 months. Probably one of the uglier dutch cities, but, also a really chilled place. I always felt safe wandering the streets at night there, even the sketchier outer suburbs. The fact so many dutchies turned out to stand up for their rights, from all walks of life is beautiful. And hats off to all the crew who turned up yesterday around oz to stand up for our own rights. Hold your ground legends.

Roadkill Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:23 pm new

This is a police state!…...says anyone that has never been living in a police state.

So dramatic.

blindboy Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:30 pm new

Desperate Indo! Back to 2004 ffs.

indo-dreaming Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:31 pm new

I forgot some other important ones

-State controls who and how many people you can have at your house and numbers if dont abide can receive fines.

- State severally restricts ability to attend religious events plus weddings, funerals and even severe limits on visiting those in hospital, if dont abide can receive fines.

Vic Local Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:32 pm new

Fliplid.
Scumo is doing a Trump. He will hold multiple positions on the one issue and highlight the crap he said that best suits the times. Scumo doesn't support mandatory vaccines, but does require quarantine and aged care workers be double vaxxed. He also won't step in to prevent businesses denying service to the unvaxxed. Scumo wants unvaxxed Brisbanites to be able to go to cafes, but he insists on journalists at his press conferences be double vaxxed. He imposed financial penalties for anti-vaxxers a few years ago, and now he's saying we can't segregate people based on their vaccine status.
His position in 3 months time will be whatever is best for him politically. Science and the public good will play no part in his position. What a fraud.

Vic Local Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:39 pm new

indo-dreaming wrote:

I forgot some other important ones

-State controls who and how many people you can have at your house and numbers if dont abide can receive fines.

- State severally restricts ability to attend religious events plus weddings, funerals and even severe limits on visiting those in hospital, if dont abide can receive fines.

Stop it ID, you're just embarrassing yourself now. By your definition NSW was a police state, Tasmania was a police state. NZ, Qld, ACT, WA and SA too. Not to mention virtually every country on the planet.

And have you seen those rules about funerals and home visits? If Vic is a police state, they are doing a pretty shit job of it, rapidly increasing freedoms as the vaccine rates increase.

Hiccups Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 08:58 pm new

bluediamond wrote:

Holy shit, that vid indo posted shows easily a crowd upwards of over a hundred thousand.

No. It absolutely does not.

bluediamond Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:05 pm new

Dunno hiccups. I've seen footage of the GF parades where they claim 100,000. Looks same to me. One of Melbourne's busiest streets packed side to side...end to end. Unless they're telling porkies about the GF parade numbers! Bastards!!!

san Guine Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:19 pm new

2011 rally nurses in Vic totally under reported...maybe I was one of the 100,000 there...hahahahahaha

https://otr.anmfvic.asn.au/articles/the-longest-industrial-relations-ca…

Respect our work. The Andrews government actually looked after nurses, all the rest, lip service and disingenuous platitudes.

Vic Local Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:24 pm new

The crowd size is irrelevant for three reasons.
1. It's not achieving anything because nobody takes them seriously. they have a list of demands that are illogical, irrelevant, illegal, and insane.
2. The ALP are so far ahead in the polls they can ignore the crowd, and whenever the LNP embrace those nutters, Labor extends their lead. 58:42.
3. There's absolutely no way a sane government would negotiate with that mob. They are leaderless and shift the goal post so often, Dan Andrews and Co know that the mob will be demanding something even more insane in 2022.
Those idiot protestors will never be happy. The string pullers will always find something to keep them angry. Keeping the mob together is the only thing that matters to the scumbags pulling the strings. Getting results (other than financial gain or political wins) is all that counts. And the LNP haven't been winning at all jumping into bed with the tin foil hat brigade.

sypkan Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:32 pm new

you are so full of shit

if the crowd size doesn't matter... why are you, the media, and every other vested interest trying so hard to talk it down?

the desperation is palpable

bluediamond Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:34 pm new

+1 to that Sypkan

bluediamond Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:36 pm new

Btw is 'Sane government ' an oxymoron??

san Guine Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:39 pm new

Hey VL,

These protestors are mostly dullards and best ignored until the next infringement of "their" rights, when they will become more vociferous and even more inconsequential. The Law of diminishing relevence is at play, unwitting participants in a game played by powers and vested interests, subsumed into the morass of politics and media agendas.

"It is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing."

Vic Local Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 09:43 pm new

Ya just don't get it do you sypkan.
That mob is an asset to the Victorian ALP, not a threat. Ignoring them means they win the middle ground, especially when the LNP MPs are speaking at those idiotic protests. The optics of LNP MPs speaking at rallies with gallows and Q Anon folk is horrendously good!!
95% of Victorians will get vaccinated, and there's fuck all sympathy to the crybaby minority who want all the freedoms with zero responsibility.
Did you see what happened in the WA election champ? The LNP in Vic are heading for one of those types of drubbings. Getting rid of O'Brien was a mercy killing. He was the lucky one!!

Supafreak Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:04 pm new

Excellent article by Australia’s Professor Robert Clancy https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/public-health/2021/10/we-cant-vaccinate…. And the comments section worth reading also.

sypkan Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:12 pm new

you don't get it brains...

as I've tried to get through your thick skull... which seems inpenetrable... it's not just about vicco or any of your other repetitive rubbish talking points

sydney and perth crew are not out to 'kill the bill'

your probably right, ...it's not really a threat to vicco alp... (though your desperation and constant propaganda-ing suggests a scared weird little boy trying to convince himself otherwise...)

and you're probably right not much will come of the protests..

but to anyone who has an open mind... (as opposed to your desperate contorted little pea) ...the protests show a party atmosphere, amongst some pretty average down to earth folk who've had enough of the bullshit... your bullshit!

they are not the extremists you keep repeating about in the most mundane and desperate of repetitive manners... with lines and points just like dictator dan.... funnily enough... or should that be... desperate dan?

mate, the crowd aren't my people, Im vaxxed and happy australia is moving on from this little episode of indulgance into the most extreme of overreactions...

I have no interest in this group of people beyond observing, Im not going to join them, and i generally think their little music festival atmosphere displays terrible taste in music...

but I say good on em... after over 350 days of lockdown in victoria... the most locked down pkace on the planet!! ...these people are enjoying a release of tensions and some much needed group therapy... all the best to them...

your desperation, dandrews desperation, the media's desperation, and the general desperation oozing from all orifices of the countries various institutions, just confirms convincingly, that these people might just have a point...

even if they cannot articulate it coherently

so bat on... you desperate lying coniving stooge... your just strengthening their case...

GuySmiley Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:12 pm new

Info calls Vicco a police state and from the very same cub reporter that lamented the police’s relaxed approach to Extinction Rebellion protestors blocking streets and going on to suggest on more than one occasion that delayed motorists “might take matters into their own hands”.

Vic Local Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:24 pm new

Vic is the lamest police state ever. It still has a fully functioning judiciary and elections, and as far as I can tell only one person has been arrested recently over the anti-everything protest, and he told everyone to bring guns and shoot the premier.
It's a crap police state. People can bring gallows and effigies of politicians and nothing happens. Nobody disappearing in unmarked white vans, and don't get me started on the media, out there asking questions at press conferences and reporting n shit. Fucken lazy cops haven't even raided the TV and radio studios yet.
No public beatings for thought crimes. No secret police, no moral police. And the various ombudsmen haven't been strung up in a public square yet. Shittest police state ever.

san Guine Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:42 pm new

It appears the people most upset by the Victorian governments' management of the pandemic, don't live in Vic (apart from the 150,000 protestors).

sypkan Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:46 pm new

I gotta say... it's a little nauseating...

that the same people who hyped up trump as, a fascist, a dictator, and a heap of other hyperbolic misnomers for years and years... with little incidence or evidence...

are now splitting hairs and playing all sorts of semantics trying to explain away whether victoria has become 'a police state' - a figure of speech...

when there is all sorts of evidence that victoria was indeed veering towards a police state... with even abc journalists voicing their concerns...

you guys really are a crack up

if you want to be taken seriously... you really need to show at least a skerrrik of credibility and impartiality...

bluediamond Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:42 pm new

speaking of coppers..
https://theconversation.com/australia-had-a-record-number-of-police-sho…
Interesting read about Vicco police in here too.
And as a disclaimer, not a follower of this journal. Just came across it, so legitmacy-wise, take it as you like.

san Guine Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:43 pm new

Correction 180,000

shortenism Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 10:54 pm new

Yeah Dan Andrew’s really looked after you didn’t he guine? Maybe he looked after you because you are ok with being jabbed by an experimental medicine but he certainly turned his back on anyone who wasn’t ok with it and that was 1000’s.

I’m sure many women say Weinstein really looked after the girls too but for some it was a fkn horror show. Jab me twice then once every 6 months and u can have your job? Sound familiar!?

If ya scared of COVID Dam Andrew’s might just be your hero. But for the rest of us who are looking at this thing sensibly he’s a psychopath that needs to be saved from himself..

I mean cmon if you have friends and one of them behaved like him, tell me you wouldn’t take him off line for a heart to heart?.

Calling these ppl dullards is a direct reflection on you my friend. Getting a bit bitter about the decisions you’ve made of late ei? And don’t start whinging about how busy you’ve been, you’ve had two years to sort ya shit out.

san Guine Sunday, 21 Nov 2021 at 11:13 pm new

Shortenism,

You're right I'm scared.
Not.

Every shift confident in my PPE. Confident in my infection control/hygiene procedures when dealing with COVID patients.
1x weekly saliva test
1x weekly Oronasal PCR

Negative as of 20/11.

Forever vigilant.

Never let my guard down at work.

"On"for an 8 hour shift, nil respite.

This is totally manageable (but super stressful).

Butt out the politicians.

Let the clinicians do their job.

And, if I said something to offend dullards then I humbly apologise. I should not discrimate on the basis of someones' dullardness or otherwise. I am respectful of all types of dullardness, in fact I see dullards as just like normal people.

Supafreak Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 09:03 am new

A90-F1-BE6-89-E4-43-D3-BE47-B89-B6-C17074-D

truebluebasher Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 10:32 am new

Monumental Crowd Control
Downunder surf site blogger laughably claims [ Kill the Bill ] Rally trumps WR Trump inauguration.

https://www.facebook.com/537746691/videos/617345182790205

Streetside Timelapse (Massive)
https://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/news/videos-reveal-scale-of-m…

Well! It was Big enough to make o/s news ... NYT
https://www.nytimes.com/video/world/australia/100000008086651/australia…

Worldwide
https://twitter.com/search?q=%23worldwidedemonstration

Does the Pandemic no favours for World's biggest liars to incessantly corrupt numbers...

Blowin Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 11:29 am new

Thank Christ this chicken shit Chunt didn’t have the final say. She wanted curfews and outdoor masks FFS. Lock her up!

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/kerry-chant-urged-consistent-lockdo…

bluediamond Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 11:42 am new

Funny how once the footage clearly reveals crowd numbers, the news websites feebly backpedal and revise their numbers. And no one says a thing. Never held accountable for the narrative they push. Also, eerily quiet on here this morning from the usual chest beaters.

bluediamond Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 12:06 pm new

Just reposting this article posted by supafreak. Everyone should read it.

Supafreak wrote:

Excellent article by Australia’s Professor Robert Clancy https://quadrant.org.au/opinion/public-health/2021/10/we-cant-vaccinate…. And the comments section worth reading also.

blindboy Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 12:32 pm new

Not excellent Rambling and misleading but hey if you want to waste half an hour of you life.....give it a go.

Blowin Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 12:37 pm new

OK….who to believe?

Blindboy
A bloke who taught high school kids how to light a Bunsen burner over and over for 30 years

Vs

Robert Clancy
The author is Emeritus Professor of Pathology at the University of Newcastle Medical School. He is a member of the Australian Academy of Science’s COVID-19 Expert Database

Whatever happened to respecting the opinions of experts?

Vic Local Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 12:38 pm new

So blowin wants to lock up Chant because she wanted outdoor masks and curfews, and Andrews because he put everyone in "house arrest".
Do they get a court case Comrade blowin, or is it straight to the salt mines?
Do you have any idea how stupid you sound when you demand politicians and health officers be locked up? Fuck the jails are going to be busy because you'd need to add Gladys, Anna, Scotty, and virtually every single leader on the planet to the list.
Let me sum up your argument. The govment told me I couldn't do sumfink during a pandemic. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH. LOCK 'EM UP. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH.

Blowin Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 12:45 pm new

blindboy wrote:

Not excellent Rambling and misleading but hey if you want to waste half an hour of you life.....give it a go.

Blindboy- Interesting that you dismiss the educated opinion of an expert on the topic. It reminds me of this post by a bloke called Cromwell* who frequented the Swellnet forums for a while ( taken from the Covid App thread started by Cromwell):

“Cromwell TUESDAY, 21 APR 2020 at 7:46PM
I'm not sure who to blame Indo all I know is that I am appalled at the sheer arrogance of those who refuse to accept that the vast majority of people behave with great integrity in their professional lives. We trust government agencies to install all sorts of infra-structure that badly done could cost lives and they overwhelmingly get it right. We trust doctors to deliver honest and reliable diagnoses. We trust our chilcdren into the care of teachers. Yet every smartarse with a keyboard is happy to cast offensive slurs in whatever direction they like without the slightest evidence. Those managing the app are professional scientists. Their integrity is more heavily scutinised than any other group. Obtaining grants or tenured positions is highly competitive and peer review is a chance for your competitors to find fault. One suggestion of falsified results and you will never be published or hold a position in the sciences again........but hey why not go with your fears or that random dude on Facebook with a (minimally) plausible load of bullshit. FFS people, if you haven't the wit or skills to to separate the bullshit from the truth maybe you should try harder.“

*Cromwell AKA Blindboy

Blowin Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 12:52 pm new

Vic Local wrote:

So blowin wants to lock up Chant because she wanted outdoor masks and curfews, and Andrews because he put everyone in "house arrest".

Do they get a court case Comrade blowin, or is it straight to the salt mines?

Do you have any idea how stupid you sound when you demand politicians and health officers be locked up? Fuck the jails are going to be busy because you'd need to add Gladys, Anna, Scotty, and virtually every single leader on the planet to the list.

Let me sum up your argument. The govment told me I couldn't do sumfink during a pandemic. Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhh. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH. LOCK 'EM UP. WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH.

If I had my way VIC Local ,you’d be sharing a cell with a violently aggressive homosexual rapist in the vein of your mate Rosenbaum. No less than you deserve.

Then again….you don’t possess the basic sense to understand how an entire state being locked indoors for 23 hours per day over a period of 20 months could constitute Ana front to their civil liberties, so I don’t imagine you’d have the ability to realise that the enormous weight bearing down on you as you slept on your stomach and then stabbing pain you felt intruding into your back passage every night was in any way related to your cell mate’s proclivities.

Vic Local Monday, 22 Nov 2021 at 12:51 pm new

gotta ask. Is this you blowin?