COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
@craig, If you didn't laugh at some of this shit, you'd be in tears!!
Fitzroy-21. The back entrance was the easiest one to get in when you were 16 but looked 14.
True Craig, that was a bit pro police state... I reserve my right to reconsider whether that warranted it... Not sure what anti-vax has to do with it...? There you go again, smearing.. 'Pro-choice' is the term otherwise you sound like 9, 7, 10, ABC, CNN, BBC, WHO, GAVI and the rest of them..
Have a beer while listening to Jim Banks talking shit on his Facey page
Sad to see some of the language on this thread but it could go some way to explaining my compulsion to jerk off when I look in the mirror ;-o
Shortenism I would truly like to believe some theories you put forth, so would you mind explaining to all of us how the end game plays out according to the Book of Shortenism. You seem to bounce from one theory to the next - it's the food chain, then it's Bill Gates, then it's dodgy developers, then it's the financial system, then it's vaccines, etc, etc. C'mon buddy enlighten us with your alternatively gained wisdom. How do all these theories come together and when do we become this bunch of automatons working for the new world order. If you do a really good job of it maybe VicLocal will refrain from calling you and your ilk cunts in every second sentence. Sarcasm aside I'm serious - cheers.
Yep all unfolding as predicted.
True covid is just decoy. Bigger picture will be seen before long.
Stay strong everyone.
It's gonna get tougher. Get familiar with your legal human rights and constitutional law.
Don't let the fuckers get you down.
love.
I try not to listen to the news much these days. I’ve found it just makes you depressed and full of worry and concern.
But fuck me dead I’m sick of hearing conspiracy theory bullshit like you have just written saltyone. You fuckers make me so angry how anyone can believe your bullshit is beyond me
Thanks for the updated graph Craig. Infection rates are interesting but have you built in an error factor based on the accuracy of the RT-PCR testing method? I reckon there is a lot of 'false positives'. Reckon you could overlay that? Also, what about the mortality rate in Australia, where are we at with that?
Don’t have all the answers.
Feel big changes are coming .
Not trying to incite fear. But not keeping head in sand either . Trusting gut .
It will be ok
Yes the news is Fukn depressing .
Look after yourselves
Stats show Vic CBD & Airport figure in Covid-19 hot spots.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2020…
With 2 Public High rises given a clear bill of health
So naturally Govt will order storm troopers to raid CBD Docklands outbreak.
Punters say, Vic Health should fairly cordon off 'ripe' inner CBD apartments.
Would the CBD Towers back themselves to return a clean bill of health?
Only that, Vic Govt can't afford to pay CBD rent & less so their VIP pamper Packs.
Urbnsurf Breakfast with the Beast + Eddie's MCG Entourage + 2 cabs 2 the 2 can.
Big Pharm just can't see a DNA Goldmine in swabbing inner city upper white crust.
Best to keep the news cams off inner City real estate, towards the west & borders...
Just as Aussies expected, Covid 19 only infects those dirty, foreign bludgers.
Govt > tongs out some scrappy doggie bags with No bread or Milk.
Big Pharm strikes DNA goldmine + gets paid $100/sample
Govt dig for more cases to outnumber the city cases > CBD value is upheld.
Govt's cue media scrums to border jumpers, far removed from CBD perfect Storm.
Vic [No Jab] $1,400 - Rebate is delayed (vs) Qld [No Jab] = $4,800 Bill -No Delay.
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/ham-fisted-lockdown-of-nine-melbourne-publi…
Qldurrz & Goldie say to come back home Victoria, we miss you! ... avagoodweekend.
conspiracy nutters do my head in, ...a bit, ...I kinda get it too...
I think its got a lot to do with some stuff andym and stunet have posted about how conspiracies help people find meaning and answers in an increasingly complicated world
but its also got a lot to do with both sides of politics spreading gross misinformation for convenieance, and living in a state of flat out denial by the abusive deplatforming of inconvenient information
the modern media machine basically
with armies of social media 'allies' or troops (depending on your flavour...) working feverishly in the public sphere
the way i see it, there's usually a kernal of truth to conspiracy theories (good ones anyway...) thats why they're so sticky and durable, ...there's always just enough doubt to keep them ticking over...
and now a heap of conspiracies have all fed into each other, as world events have fed into a massive whirlpool / perfect storm event, where many institutions - got way too comfortable institutions - are failing miserably under 'unprecedented' simutaneous challenges
pretty ignorant about qanon, but they seem to have put a lot of this all together in a rather convenient package
zeitgheist (the movie), americo, one world government microchipping loss of liberty, has morphed and merged with lizard people peadophile rings running the world out of a pizza shop basement
..and then throw in the virus!
...from the globalist billioaire factory!!!
the fact governments do seceretively want to end money, borders, countries, culture, citizenship, and digitise our existence into a one world government agenda 21 'diverse' eco village utopia does actually feed the beast, ...but what else would you expect?
(a relatively noble goal btw, but Im just not seeing it materialise....)
there's so much dirt and innuendo out there it really puzzles me why guys like shortenism don't just post good stuff that supports his conspiracy and put it out there
the pedo rings, the push for centralised power, the lizrad people (jewish people?) running the world...
there's plenty of smoke if you want to link some links to paint a legit. picture
but I reckon keeping the mystery is half of the allure, ...for them and their new followers
there's no conspiracy
....well there is actually, it just comes down to when colluding becomes conspiring
and atm, there's lots of colluding and conspiring, from all quarters and colours, as we truly live through 'unprecedented times'...
It has to be taken into context Indo. They're doing more testing than ever before and targeted and contact tracing, and there's the apartments full of them, so nothing to worry too much about. As expected.
Craig, do we know how many new cases have had contact with another known case?
Exactly Craig, unfortunately the headline says 288 new cases....followed by another headline saying Victorians urged to wear masks. 'Worst Virus Spike' is what the lovely Herald Sun has to say.
Further down the article is where it talks about the 30K+ tests completed in a day, the most Australia's ever done in a day.
OK, shame - that's probably the most interesting bit of data, as far as telling how in- or out of control the flare up really is.
Aspiring Victorian State Liberal Party leader Tim Smith as trustworthy as a snake in a sleeping bag.
Covid Lockdown Hot Spot recipe book.
This week we taste test ...
amr's Victorian Glazed Tuna Tomato Chocolate Chip Pasta Pie
Served to formal guests with deep cups of sickly sweet Black Morning Tea.
(Suitable for Westie Wogz & shit)
https://twitter.com/amore___31/status/1279589460913483776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1279589460913483776%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sbs.com.au%2Fnews%2Fham-fisted-lockdown-of-nine-melbourne-public-housing-towers-some-without-confirmed-covid-19-cases-criticised
amr will select ingredients from his mystery box
Pack of Flour + Box of Weet Bix + Chocolate Chip Cookies + Pasta
2 Jars of Strawberry Jam + A pound of Sugar
2 cans of Tomato Soup + 4 small cans of Tuna + 2L Apple Juice
Let's Cook!
Method
(1) Use Feet to squish Apple Juice +Weet Bix + Chocolate Chip Cookies + Flour
(2) Now press this mix into the base of yer Woggy Casserole Dish
(3) Mix in Tomato Soup with Tuna & Pasta then pour over the Base.
(4) Cook in Oven on 160* for 80 mins or until Govt cuts off yer Gas.
(5) Blend a near Packet of Sugar with 2 Jars of Strawberry Jam to Glaze yer Pie.
Be sparing as you carve up yer Pie as serving portions need to last 2 weeks.
Serve up some Asha Morning Tea ( Black + Sickly sweet goes well with amr's Pie)
Plate up at 1.5m then invite Tracy & Dutto over for a real beaut Aussie Morning Tea.
Make sure to keep the camera rolling as they hoe into the pie & sip their fancy tea!
Oz Covid Stats on the run...by UNSW
22nd June Highest Oz wide Tests 66,525 / day
Achieving best Oz average Tests of 50,000 / day x 7 days.
Options to "Control" the virus...(See article for explanation)
Mass Testing : 6.5m / day
Contact Testing : 150,000 / day
Group Testing : 30-40,000 / day
https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/business-law/vital-signs-50000-austra…
Indo, You had a good day the other day using expert advice to take a position. You've slipped posting this graph. Correlation doesn't mean causation and there's no evidence the spike in infections was caused by the BLM protesters.
These new cases have been traced back to the source and it's not BLM protests. Do try and return to your previous higher standard rather than relying on misleading graphs.
TBB this hasn’t been given the respect it deserves! This is amazing ha ha ha ha
Covid Lockdown Hot Spot recipe book.
This week we taste test ...
amr's Victorian Glazed Tuna Tomato Chocolate Chip Pasta Pie
Served to formal guests with deep cups of sickly sweet Black Morning Tea.
(Suitable for Westie Wogz & shit)
https://twitter.com/amore___31/status/1279589460913483776?ref_src=twsrc%...
amr will select ingredients from his mystery box
Pack of Flour + Box of Weet Bix + Chocolate Chip Cookies + Pasta
2 Jars of Strawberry Jam + A pound of Sugar
2 cans of Tomato Soup + 4 small cans of Tuna + 2L Apple Juice
Let's Cook!
Method
(1) Use Feet to squish Apple Juice +Weet Bix + Chocolate Chip Cookies + Flour
(2) Now press this mix into the base of yer Woggy Casserole Dish
(3) Mix in Tomato Soup with Tuna & Pasta then pour over the Base.
(4) Cook in Oven on 160* for 80 mins or until Govt cuts off yer Gas.
(5) Blend a near Packet of Sugar with 2 Jars of Strawberry Jam to Glaze yer Pie.
Be sparing as you carve up yer Pie as serving portions need to last 2 weeks.
Serve up some Asha Morning Tea ( Black + Sickly sweet goes well with amr's Pie)
Plate up at 1.5m then invite Tracy & Dutto over for a real beaut Aussie Morning Tea.
Make sure to keep the camera rolling as they hoe into the pie & sip their fancy tea!
Zak Surf in Thornbury Melbourne (phone 03 94167384) today sent out a email to all people on their mailing list reminding Melbourne lockdown surfers that the Mornington Peninsula is still good to go. Meanwhile the MP Shire is calling on the State Govt to urgently close off the MP (which currently has no Covid19 cases) to Melbourne like Geelong and beyond is.
There is no arguing with stupid nor greed.
Your kidding! Maybe all peninsula surfers should give him a call tomorrow and kindly let him know what they think about that.
So looks like masks are on the cards for Melbourne...and soon probably Vicco and the rest of Aus (if things keep heading this way).
Can see masks quickly becoming a peer pressure/social norm thing quickly - people will start to feel bad or shamed for not having a mask and will need to get one. Being the yank lovers/followers that we are (who have been plastering social media with '#wearamask' for some time now) we'll quickly tap into the idea that if you're anti mask, you're likely far right/pro-trump of some religious nutbag.
Personally I find it funny. Back in January I watched in disgust as I saw video's of Wuhan locals being arrested for not wearing a mask in public, now, as a Melbourne local to be honest I don't really care, and would slap one on if a shop/supermarket made me with no issues. I like to think I'm fairly community minded and I don't want to make others feel uncomfortable.
I'm kind of anti-masks deep down though, like our bodies are designed with immune systems and surely a mask somewhat limits exposure to other everyday virus/bacteria, which we should generally regularly test our immunity with. Although it may be minor, I would think we'd be in turn weakening our first line defenses - and to do this on a 'herd' like scale, surely it's the way superbugs get started? To me it's not to far off feeding all the population antibiotics to wipe out a type of bacteria - may kill some but create others? Of course, this is just wild speculation but I've never liked how masks had become quite the norm in some countries (pre-covid).
I'm anti disposable masks and gloves though (for the general population - not medically)....that shit's not what our poisoned planet needs!
GuySmiley - It's never ok to try to incite mob retaliation on individuals or businesses via online platforms, particularly anonymously.
Stok, I was stating facts only but when is it okay to put public safety at risk for commercial gain?
Guysmiley - to answer your question it's not okay. But there's two sides to a story.
Zak's insta post was pretty level I think (copied below). I'm not on the mailing list so I don't know what was said, but to be honest the rules are pretty clear that you can A. Surf, and you can B. travel within the allowable zone (incl. the peninsula).
The reality is no one wants this in their area, whether you currently have cases or not. Reading between the lines, the current Government advice is showing that the peninsula effectively cannot be quarantined off - hence why it's not separated like Geelong. The truth is the amount of travel in and out of the lockdown zone will be huge anyway (due to workers, carers, deliveries etc.), it's at best a stall. Surfing, and surfers, are quite frankly up there with the least of the concerns.
Zak's post
Can we surf during lockdown? If we had a dollar for every time we have been asked this question we probably wouldn’t need JobKeeper! A good mate of ours sent us a link to an FAQ page on the Department of Health and Human Services regarding sport and exercise in metro Melbourne (link in bio for a short time). Take the time to have a read - it’s not entirely clear and we aren’t legal experts so any reasoned and learned legal opinions would be greatly appreciated. Whichever way you read it, we would suggest that people take the utmost care in terms of social distancing and not travelling anywhere in groups. The sooner we get through it the better for everyone.
p.s. I live southside and have no association with Zaks! Practically never shop there (although it's a good store)
Stok ...these Vic Pathologists test 100,000 slobbery Corona swabs per week!
In this video Lab uncovers several (+) cases > Never once do any wear a Mask?
Also at the start transit & end Mouse / Keyboard none wear gloves...just saying!
https://www.doherty.edu.au/news-events/news/100000-covid-19-tests
Check the photo...10 crates & each holding 100 & girls are cruisin' with No Masks?
Given that a good many brews on that benchtop are in fact (+)
Frontline Lab crew know that some lids are suss with the virus droplets...surely!
If Lab is cool with sniffing 100,000 shots wk ...What Truth are we led to believe?
Warning!
tbb wears nasal mask each evening...would never wish that upon the crew.(Horrid!)
Without a lie ...tbb bought a chin strap today, to fasten his mouth shut. (Hoorah!)
{ Not to be confused as a farewell note! }
Mad experiment sees tbb rise from sarcophagus as lively as a Mummy or Zombie.
tbb's CSR Psychedelic X-Ray vision can already see the experiment succeeded.
https://www.bmj.com/content/329/7480/1483
Results: 10% more relaxed but 15% weaker. Hazy Dazed feeling has kicked in...say Wot!
tbb also wore wore dust masks at work for 3 hrs x 3x / week in humid conditions. (Gross!)
After 10 mins the steaming soggy mask was ripped off in order to breathe...shocking it was!
tbb found breathing is somehow important...never underestimate the need for Oxygen.
Masks come from Animal fleece or Plant fibre or Toxic Chems.
Mindful of Chem free washing agents to protect yer lungs.
Recycled deep breathing of VOC's in a sealed vacuum is not healthy & you may pass out.
All remain silent on slow poisoning & redirect focus to enclosed carbon dioxide compliance.
But all agree to use on a need only basis is healthiest. Obviously.
So yes! All Masks are unhealthy, but how much they're yet to say!
Same with CPAP & Ventilator Hoses. All ramp VOC's but none say what levels are harmful.
Most medical gear is absent of chemical inhalation guidelines. Suck it up!
New car smell goes to yer head...spend 2 hours trapped in one & yer as good as dead.
Stok, I did post and then delete late last night what Zak's email had to say including the accompanying map but deleted it as I wasn't going to further add to his commercial, oops did I say that, I mean community service agenda.
Fair to say his downlow email to his mailing list wasn't as community safety minded as his Instagram post.
Fair to say (x2) he is not alone, another local surf shop tried it on during the first lockdown and the knob-heads wonder why crew prefer to shop anywhere, even interstate, but not at their stores.
Here's an article on mask re-use. I understand the issue has moved on a lot since it was published, but it's a start.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/can-you-reuse-a-face-mask-2020-3
We have a few and leave them out on the line for a few days and then re-use if needed. The waste from this is going to be so over-the-top its unbelievable. The article also says heat of 56 degrees kills it, so you can cook the bastards as well.
tango, the problem with masks is, a lot of complete fuckwits simply refuse to wear them despite the medical experts' advice. Luckily the masks are excellent in thwarting 5G facial recognition technology.
Got a stupid person problem? get a stupid person solution.
What's the local surf like today Mr Shouty? Uncrowded or packed with law breakers?
GS, I will assume I'm Mr Shouty!!! Surf is tiny so hard to gauge crowds. We've got a week of onshores coming up so we won't know if the Melbourne crew are going to be responsible or irresponsible for a while.
TBH, I'm just going to burn every Melbourne person in the water. I don't care. Irresponsible c#nts have basically destroyed the tourism and hospitality industry down here. We owe surfers breaking covid 19 regulations absolutely nothing other than contempt.
"What can I say?"
How about "fair enough. people who ignored Covid warnings have put people's lives in danger and driven good businesses that support families and employees to the wall. After 6 months of warnings, they don't deserve any respect in the surf"?
It doesn’t amount to much, but I’m with Vic local, hopefully with less anger. There is no need for conspiracy theories on this or any other government actions. There isn’t a govt in the world that can keep its own members onside, let alone a world wide conspiracy. I exclude dictatorships from the word ‘govt’. They keep everyone inside by sheer force and threat.
Yes, we should lock down as needed, yes, NSW is likely to have to lockdown in a week or two, probably should now to keep it to just two weeks rather than 6, though there is still a chance that we may get lucky again. Letting people get off a Jetstar flight without health checks was 9 sides of dumb. You’d think there wasn’t a Ruby Princess mistake of grandiose stupidity to learn from.
Yes, in Sydney people have relaxed on the social distancing, but the numbers actually suggested that was ok. There really wasn’t any community transmission here, but the Vic outbreak changes everything.
We always should have gone for eradication, NZ style, but they have a leader, we have ScoMo.
Don’t worry about the deficit/debt malarkey. The govt owes the debt to the reserve bank. If dad owed money to mum, would you say that dad was broke, or worry about it?
Good to see a lot of people take enough interest in this to follow genuine news, others unfortunately not capable of working out what news is worth following. That will always be true.
VL - quite the lengthy bow you're drawing to connect those dots...classic us versus them fallacy.
Can I ask how do you know if a surfer is from Melbourne? Not say a Geelong surfer, or a Barwon heads surfer?
"How about "fair enough. people who ignored Covid warnings have put people's lives in danger and driven good businesses that support families and employees to the wall. After 6 months of warnings, they don't deserve any respect in the surf"?
Your view Vic local is so hypercritical.
You say things like that above, yet don't believe allowing 10K people to protest on the street hasn't changed peoples views on prevention measures and been a contributing factor to recent outbreak, I'm sure if the protest was some right wing protest, you would be the first to point fingers at them.
BTW. Not all cases are traceable a percentage cant be traced to a source, not to mention the cases we know about are only those that we know about through testing, the true number is unknown.
" people who ignored Covid warnings(and attended protest) have put people's lives in danger and driven good businesses that support families and employees to the wall. After 6 months of warnings, they don't deserve any respect "
That is more true because that's where infections are in the urban areas, not on the coast.
Again with the BLM bullshit?
Do you fucking honestly believe that the security guard at the quarantine hotel thought it was OK to fuck a covid patient and let her go to 7/11 because other people had protested?
Do you seriously believe those people lining up outside the Sydney pub thought that was OK, because there was a BLM protest in Sydney?
Do you seriously think the 20 odd people at the party in Dandenong thought it was OK to have a shindig because other people had gone to a BLM protest?
Despite all the warnings, way too many people have got sloppy with their social distancing and hygiene, and the case number have inevitably gone up.
I lost 90% of my income during the first Covid 19 lockdown. It was starting to come back strongly and then we had the second wave due to the combined actions of stupid people. Last week, I had to cancel a shit load of bookings and hand back many thousands of dollars. So when some Melbourne fucker, ignores the lockdown laws and comes down to surf, why the fuck should I show that cunt any respect?
Here in NZ we are lucky not to have had a second bad wave. We have had hotel isolation fuck ups left right and centre. People escaping with covid and popping down to the supermarket.
We've dodged plenty bullets. All from selfish cunts returning from overseas.
I would not be surprised if we get another wave with the fuckwits in isolation behaving so selfishly.
Why cant we test people before they get on a plane. It's not fucking rocket surgery
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia