House prices
Thanks Blindboy and if you ever see Adam who runs the boutique store in Ulladulla and surfs those gnarly reefs insanely well (natural footer) forget his last name say gday to him from Matty v if you could. I reckon he opened that store to pull honeys when he was younger and more handsome haha.
thermalben wrote:
After years of stalling, Kings Forest is about to kick off construction soon (the Concept Plan was first lodged in 2007).
It'll have 4,500 new homes adjacent to Casuarina, with 11,000 new residents (2016 census had 35 residents).
If you thought it was hard to get a parking spot at cabarita now , the future looks crazy . They might want to upgrade the road from chinderah to blackrock too .
Supafreak wrote:
If you thought it was hard to get a parking spot at cabarita now , the future looks crazy . They might want to upgrade the road from chinderah to blackrock too .
Major upgrades being planned right now. The carpark has been a headache for a long time.
They could dredge a few more "waterfront" homes and make a wavepool
I clicked on the first page of this thread by accident and it’s funny how comments haven’t really changed…. Houses are over priced, there will be a housing correction shortly etc
Five years ago though some of those coastal properties would have been half the cost they are now….. but we’re now closer to housing price correction… or are we?!
seeds wrote:
Over 70,000 trees will be planted for the preservation of the local koala population at Kings Forest.
I assume that means koala habitat is being flattened for the development. What’s the habitat like there?
Block sizes starting at 240sqm oh my. These modern developments are ghastly eyesores.
Habitat has been cleared years ago, old farm land? Sandy, overgrown with grass and weeds, gets mowed occasionally. Coastal swamp areas in there too.
Used to live in Kingy before there was any development along that stretch down to Cabba, where all the houses and hotels and stuff is now was a sandy 4wd track through the coastal scrub. You'd walk through the sand mine (still operating) to surf south beach.
Yep gragagan .. Lived at Cabba before Casuarina and Salt were developed . I miss the old village atmosphere.. Carpark was still always crowded but I only lived 2 streets back so it wasn't worth starting the car for anyway, unless it was to just do a drive by to check it. And yeah , used to be some pretty cool beach tracks for the 4wd back then , and a regular crew of surfers and fishos who used them regularly ,,hard to imagine it now.
That’s good to know Gragagan. 70000 extra trees is good. The estate will be terrible with small blocks like that. Hopefully most blocks are bigger. But I’m no fan of these estates from all the horrible developments here on the Sunshine Coast.
I remember that stretch before Casuarina and Salt. Great place to dos in the old Hilux and wake up to the sunrise
Yeah it was crazy how quick it all went up. Always seemed to be more crowded out in the water then too. Healthy local crew, lots of groms, I was at school and every arvo was busy. Cant remember any agro either, it was pretty laid back.
Some extreme numbers out of the US .
US ISM Services in Oct-21 rose to a record 66.7, an extreme 2.9 standard deviations above average! Activity and New Orders were records, Supplier Deliveries the 2nd highest on record. ADP Private Employment in Oct-21 rose a booming 571k. The US economy is reaccelerating from its 3Q21 delta moderation. The Fed began its gradual tapering- slowing bond purchases by US$15bn per month until mid-22- but is in denial, seeing elevated inflation as mostly transitory.
I won't often include this information . It is related to recent comments at the moment .
Hutchy 19 wrote:
Some extreme numbers out of the US .
US ISM Services in Oct-21 rose to a record 66.7, an extreme 2.9 standard deviations above average! Activity and New Orders were records, Supplier Deliveries the 2nd highest on record. ADP Private Employment in Oct-21 rose a booming 571k. The US economy is reaccelerating from its 3Q21 delta moderation. The Fed began its gradual tapering- slowing bond purchases by US$15bn per month until mid-22- but is in denial, seeing elevated inflation as mostly transitory.
I won't often include this information . It is related to recent comments at the moment .
So dangerous calling inflation transitory, attributing it purely to supply chain issues and leaving it at that. I mean, I hope that is the case, to be honest, I would rather choose that than the system meltdown. In the meantime, anyone that has any investing capabilities is loading it into real estate and crypto.
You are right flollo !
Real estate has performed during mild inflation . Underperformed during the 80's . Depends on how high inflation goes and then interest rates that the Bankers will use to tame it .
I would be a seller of real estate rather than a buyer at the moment but this is not advice .
Hard assets are mostly the best hedge against inflation as you know . Commodities .
No idea how crypto and other digital currencies will fare . Inflation has not been around during their life cycle . Uncharted waters .
Aaand another one.
"The mystery backers of a divisive multi-million dollar beachside development have shocked locals. Untouched beaches and native wildlife are why Hawks Nest residents love their home. All of that could change if the Obeid family get their way."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/hawks-nest-obeid-four-corners/10…
House price growth three times faster than wages over four decades https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/house-price-growth-three-times-fast…
I find these graphs (from https://www.longtermtrends.net/) of the current unprecedented state of the US property market and level of government debt quite interesting, and alarming!
Real house prices and house prices relative to income are at unprecedented highs:
(These graphs are for the US contrary to what the "larger" headings say.)
Government debt relative to GDP is at an unprecedented high:
(I can't seem to find the equivalent graphs for Aus.)
The question is can things go on like this for ever, and if not then for how much longer and what will the adjustment be like...?
Sprout wrote:
Aaand another one.
"The mystery backers of a divisive multi-million dollar beachside development have shocked locals. Untouched beaches and native wildlife are why Hawks Nest residents love their home. All of that could change if the Obeid family get their way."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-08/hawks-nest-obeid-four-corners/10…
Wow. Watched the four corners on this. Disgusted re Obeid. Wasn’t it nice to see former deputy premier national Andrew stoner with his surfboard in arm claiming that the recent land clearing of the coastal patch in his backyard has led to a “desert” and “paradise lost”. Leading the good fight Andrew. Thank fuck for your public service.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/archived/bushtelegraph/ns…
https://amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/right-wing-extremists-labor-attacks…
https://amp.smh.com.au/environment/sustainability/nsw-farmers-accelerat…
https://theconversation.com/amp/the-nsw-koala-wars-showed-one-thing-the…
“The NSW Nationals have vehemently opposed Labor's land clearning laws.
Last year Mr Stoner controversially announced the government would seek to overhaul the laws, which he labelled "fragmented, rigid and overly complex".
In regards to the four corners program. The community of of Hawkes Nest has been sold a steal. Any one with half an idea can see the negative impacts out weigh the positives in this case. What a sham and crooked set of ideals those that approve these deals have. Totally out of touch with the soul and the people of the area. Just another steal with a big deal for a few. Fight back Hawkes nest. Once it's gone it's gone.
Don’t panic…I’ve been told that interest rates aren’t going to rise until 2026.
Oh, wait….
“Property shock as fixed rate mortgages skyrocket
By Houses and Holes
You can thank the RBA for this little snafu:
National Australia Bank has jacked up its fixed home loan rates for the second time in two weeks as lenders look to entice borrowers to variable offerings as wholesale funding costs march higher.
Australia’s second-largest lender on Thursday hiked its fixed home loan rates by up to 0.51 per cent, according to RateCity. It follows similar moves by peers Westpac and CBA earlier this month.
NAB increased its three-year fixed term rate by as much as 51 basis points, bringing it to 2.79 per cent.
The property price boom was driven in some significant measure by these rates:
Damien Roylance, mortgage broker and MD at Entourage Finance, told Australian Broker that he had been seeing 9 out of 10 customers choose a fixed rate in recent weeks.
“We’re having the conversation with every single customer at the moment,” he told Australian Broker. “The rates are just too attractive.”
“Owner occupier rates starting with a 1 in front is something that we’ve never seen before, and most people don’t think that a variable rate can go below what’s on offer.”
House prices are going to slow fast on this. The equivalent of four rate hikes in a month is pretty extraordinary stuff.
The RBA has allowed a market inflation panic to overwhelm its forward guidance for Australians that rates would be anchored until 2024.
They have every right to be angry at it.“
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-11/private-islands-for-sale-in-quee…
https://www.australianislands.com.au/islands-1/wothingtonisland
A few months a year of top Fishing ....while the Gunja grows
"It's a shocker, bumpy road ahead for sure..."
quite a 'curve'...
any predictions how it'll effect little old oz?
Well, if it's like 1970s inflation, there's the possibility Disco will return as well, and you should be worried about that.
sypkan wrote:
"It's a shocker, bumpy road ahead for sure..."
quite a 'curve'...
any predictions how it'll effect little old oz?
No change.
Modest interest rate rise in Q3 2023 and into 2024.
But still below historical norms.
freeride76 wrote:
"It's a shocker, bumpy road ahead for sure..."quite a 'curve'...
any predictions how it'll effect little old oz?
No change.
Modest interest rate rise in Q3 2023 and into 2024.
But still below historical norms.
Might be below historical norms Steve but the mortgage values certainly are NOT!!!
And this is where the arse end of the housing market is about to fall hard!!
And probably not limited to the housing market. Highly leveraged investors in over-valued assets were the cause of the 2008 shambles. Who knows what house of cards is hiding in the US financial system? China has moved early to attempt a clean up of some of its problems......for the rest we just have to hope!
blindboy wrote:
And probably not limited to the housing market.
The Buffett Indicator gives a decent view on where equity valuations are at:
Wilshire 5000 relative to US GDP:
US public & private equity relative to US GDP:
So relative to the size of the US economy, US equities are at an at least 70yr high.
Also relevant is the (inverse of) the S&P500 dividend yield:
Apart from the tech bubble, S&P500 dividend yield is at an at least 150yr low (note again the chart is 1/div_yield, and on a log scale).
House price growth to continue into 2023, albeit at a slightly lower rate.
Fuelled by record low interest rates, economic recovery, and strong demand.
Maybe a levelling off in 2024 when interest rate rises start to bite.
$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)
no freehold, just the cabin.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-…
freeride76 wrote:
House price growth to continue into 2023, albeit at a slightly lower rate.
Fuelled by record low interest rates, economic recovery, and strong demand.
Maybe a levelling off in 2024 when interest rate rises start to bite.
Unfortunately I have to agree to disagree on this one Steve.
freeride76 wrote:
$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)
no freehold, just the cabin.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-…
Saw this earlier today. And this is exactly why the arse end is about to fall out of the market.
Here’s another reason. Company made a billion dollar loss so far this year. Went to IPO and is currently valued now over $100b!!!
Absurd insanity and clearly everyone is trying to find the next Tesla stock!!
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-11/the-biz-rivian-electric-car-debu…
Just type that number out with all the correct zeros. Valued at $100,000,000,000!! And made a $1,000,000,000 so far and only sold 150 cars!!
freeride76 wrote:
$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)
no freehold, just the cabin.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-…
Nutz....
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/pm/conceivable-property-prices-co…
“Even a rise in interest rates I 2022 won’t be enough to see house prices fall… necessary”
Necessary equating to unless policy on tax incentive policy is changed. Which neither party will touch.
So nope. No crash in Australian house prices. Just a slow in growth.
iirc interest rates began rising in 2004, up into 2007 ( I remember RBA raising just before election). What I saw where I was, was that discretionary spending collapsed (not nice for businesses dependent on it) as people switched this toward increased mortgage costs. House prices rose for the next 3 years into this increasing rate environment as this went on.
freeride76 wrote:
$750000 for a relocatable cabin in a caravan park in Byron (Suffolk Park)
no freehold, just the cabin.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-12/byron-real-estate-perverse-750k-…
I may have stayed in that cabin once. Talk about Lifestyles of the Rich and Famous!
velocityjohnno wrote:
iirc interest rates began rising in 2004, up into 2007 ( I remember RBA raising just before election). What I saw where I was, was that discretionary spending collapsed (not nice for businesses dependent on it) as people switched this toward increased mortgage costs. House prices rose for the next 3 years into this increasing rate environment as this went on.
The difference between now and back then is the $value of the average mortgage now compared with income levels. This multiple is one of the highest in the developed world. That can only mean one thing once interest rates start to rise. A sell off in the property market.
They better have a plan for housing too. But it is the NSW gov so doubt it...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-15/radical-surge-in-immigration-thr…
"As you can see, something serious has happened to our productivity growth.
If policymakers knew how to fix it you'd think they would."
That sounds a bit of a cop-out. So in place of productivity growth it's huge levels of immigration and increasing pressure on infrastructure, services and the environment. Not a Clever Country.
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers