NE windswells favour south of Yamba, with small S spikes next week

South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Fri Nov 7th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Another small NE windswell event favouring the MNC-Yamba stretch, peaking Sat with winds shifting NW as low approaches
• S’ly change Sun up to the border, with small leftover NE windswells and a late kick in S swell across the MNC 
• Small but fun S/SE swells Mon with moderating S/SE winds
• Small leftovers Tues with light winds
• Small flush of S swell Wed south of the border with light winds tending NE
• N’lies increasing later next week with NE windswell 
• Potentially a stronger long period S groundswell next weekend but N’lies a problem

Recap 

A small blend of S and E swells in the 2ft range (1-2ft in SEQLD) were the main energy in the water yesterday with some clean conditions on offer early under light/variable land breezes before SE-E winds kicked up. Smaller today, mostly in the 1-2ft range or less with clean morning conditions before NE winds kicked in.

Easy run out the Bar this morning with just tiny waves on offer

This weekend (Nov 8-9)

No great change to the weekend f/cast. Weak high pressure in the Tasman with an increasing N-N/NE infeed into an approaching cut-off low and trough system. A proximate fetch of N’lies favours the MNC-Coffs stretch for size, extending up to Yamba with NE windswell to 2-3ft developing. Expect smaller surf the further north you go with SEQLD remaining in the 1-2ft range or less with N’lies. Not much happening north of Yamba apart from a small grovel on the back beaches. 

Sunday looks a bit more interesting. A S’ly change associated with the trough and cut-off low moving away will be tracking up the coast with early W-W/NW winds across the MNC to North Coast- still N’ly north of the border. N’lies remain all day north of the border but the change looks to reach Coffs early morning, Yamba-Ballina mid morning and the rest of the Far North Coast by the a’noon, with the change looking to stall around the border-keep tabs on local winds around that region. Surf-wise, some small NE windswells for the North Coast to 1-2ft. S swells should start to build later a’noon across the MNC to Coffs, possibly just filling in on dark across the rest of the North Coast to 2-3ft.

Next week (Nov 10 onwards)

A decaying ridge Mon quickly breaks down as high pressure moves NE into the Tasman. That should see light SW-S breezes in the morning through NENSW into the Gold Coast, more S-SE further into SEQLD- with winds tending SE-E and easing through the day.  The morning looks good with mid period S-S/SE swells in the 3-4ft range across NENSW, smaller 2 occ. 3ft at SEQLD S swell magnets.  Nothing amazing but worth pouncing on this time of year.

Small leftovers to 2ft at S facing beaches Tues with  winds swinging N’ly as a front approaches and moves into the Tasman. There should be a small grovel on hand early before the wind gets up.

Another weak ridge then sets up Wed as a weak high cell moves NE into the Tasman, with light land breezes tending light N-NE in the a’noon. Some workable S swell from the front in the 3ft range offers a fun wave at S facing beaches in NENSW- not much for SEQLD. It’s just a quick up and down, gone by Thurs so get in Wed for a shred.

N’lies then kick back in Thurs into the weekend.

Another frontal system linked to a deep low passing under Tasmania approaches later next week (see below). Still too early to have much confidence in specifics but at this early stage indications are of a swell of much greater quality as the parent low and gales become slow moving and the system intensifies.

We’ll look at size and timing on Mon but we should see an initial pulse build in Fri or Sat then a stronger, longer period swell later Sat or into Sun, potentially up in the 4-5ft range at S facing beaches in NENSW and some outliers on the reefs. N’ly winds look to be in the house during this time. 

Check back Mon for the latest on this swell and in the meantime, gave a great weekend!