gs-co wrote:

A gentle reminder about the cause of today's situation:

US trade deficit:

US government debt relative to GDP:

Both are predominately caused by the abandonment of financial and monetary prudence and responsibility post GFC by the US Federal Reserve (central bank):

M0 money supply

M1 money supply

It's very simple. The US needs to return these and other indicators back to pre-GFC levels.

Ray Dalio's take:

Ray Dalio wrote:

The monetary/economic order is breaking down because there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this unsustainably large debt. The debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a) debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on a too much debt because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies. There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. For example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can't trust that the other major players won't cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). This is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly led to the same sorts of problems we're seeing now. So, the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy. In an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances, which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink one way or another. Also, it should be obvious that the U.S. government debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to is unsustainable. (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.) Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at another time.

good onya gs...

everyone... EVERYONE... should watch dalio's video to understand what's happening...

it doesn't mean you have to agree with trump

it doesn't mean much at all...

but the historical context, and cycles, are most beneficial to understand where we are at now

it's all about debt, booms, busts, tech, and empires...

trump is actually trying to avert a disaster and / or war... like I said, you don't have to agree with his methods... but this vid gives a great foundation to what he's addressing...

cheers @sypkan, I just had a fun read from when @Cockee dared SNers to shoot for 200 pages on this thread. Classic time, 2021 (page 109), all the stars are there, blindboy, viclocal, blowin, tubeshooter, sypkan, soggydog, indodreaming, velocityjohnno, etarip.. somewhere in the middle @gsco first recommended Ray Dalio..
https://www.swellnet.com/comment/778088

looking at that link above, not sure how it works, but based on recent comments' #number, does that mean swellnet passed a million comments 52 000 comments ago?

Good post Syp….very interesting video.

seeds wrote:

wax24 wrote:

seeds wrote:

Jeffy you are the Rainman.

Who’s on first?

I don't know......

He’s on third.

I was on Unit 400 here in the psych hosp. (this is a few years back now) and i was wearing my Who's On First? long sleeve t-shirt. A patient passed by and said, in a voice filled with malice, "but, are you a pitcher or a catcher?"
I never wore that shirt to work again.

andy-mac][quote=indo-dreaming wrote:

southernraw wrote:

indo-dreaming wrote:

andy-mac wrote:

""

One day Iran is going to hit Israel and get through their defence systems, it's a hell of a lot better taking that risk now when Iran is weak and doesnt have nuclear weapons, than in the future when Iran has regained strength and armed with nuclear weapons

BTW. Your understanding of anything to do with military aspect or war is about the level of a ten year old, so you are inno position to criticise.

Low info facts.

Low info fiction.

Keep spinning ya web lowinfo.

Good for a laugh at the end of the day ya numbskull.

You seem to still be friend's with your ex GF in Tel aviv, yet you seem totally ignorant to the fact that without the Iron dome and other protective system's she would quite literally be at risk of thousands of rockets, by not just Iran but Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and other groups like Palestinian Islamic Jihad all funded by Iran.

Instead you seemingly seem to side with those that are trying to kill her and other Israeli's and dont take the threat of Iran and its proxies seriously.

The reality is Iran will one day try to destroy Israel (directly and not just through proxies) and if not prevented it could one day be with a nuclear warhead, and even if the USA & Israel try to prevent this from happening and hit Iran in the near future, there is still a real chance that some Iran rockets Iran will fire in response will get through the defensive system.

If this happens other than military base's Tel Avi will be the target site, Im not saying this to troll or trigger you, it is a very realistic scenario that you could wake up one day even in the next year and read in the news that Tele avi has been hit and hundreds or even thousands are dead, and your gut is going to sink hoping that your X is not one of those people.

My advice, if you have had a falling out with her over a clash of views on this, get good with her and make peace now, just incase.

And yes i hope like hell that she stays safe and this never happens.

.

You really just buy into the Israeli/Bibi propaganda mate.

Iran had a deal with US over nuclear weapons which Trump broke.

Some reliable sources such as Jeffery Sachs have stated that Iran have been trying to normalise relations with the US for years, and even had a moderate PM again trying to do this recently.

Continually being attacked by the West and Israel only strengthen the hardliners as we are witnessing now.

Netanyahu has been banging the war drum for over 2 decades, you know the war criminal who is ok with his most moral army on earth targeting kids and aid workers.

What's the civilian death count now?

Yeah all Hamas supporters I know.

Now Trump has sent a list of demands threatening Iran.

A list that no sane country would accept. Where does that leave them?

If a war starts we know who is really responsible....

Anyway carry on with your one eyed supremist Israeli view on things.

They are the chosen ones right?

I read it in a book.

A lot of your views and those videos you watch are just regurgitated Islamic propaganda copied straight from Arab state media channels or even worse.

Im going to believe USA and Israel any day of the week before Iran or Islamist terrorist groups propaganda, but hey you are so far down the rabbit hole you would likely believe ISIS are good guys at this point.

None of Irans PM's are moderate all the candidates are radical islamic, moderate candidates can not run, its not like a proper democracy, thats why turn out to vote is so low, moderate in Iran is radical elsewhere.

The last moderate Iran leader raised the age men can have sex with a female from 9 to 13 after a radical one lowered it from 13 to 9.

Not to mention the Ayatollah is the one that holds the power over the revolutionary guard and all military aspects.

As for nuclear deals it was obviously very flawed, UN inspectors could not even visit all sites, and then what's to say there is not unknown sites or things are hidden. and Iran has a terrible history of abiding by anything

You can read about some of them here

"TREATY AND CONVENTION VIOLATIONS"
https://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/irans-disregard-for-internatio…

None of this is new Iran have been aiming to develop nuclear weapons since the 90s, and made it clear it's their goal, and clear they want to destroy Israel, the little satan (USA being the big satan)

They always seem to say Iran is only weeks away from a nuclear weapon, but this time they really could be very close.

And the hard reality is Iran has been sponsoring terrorist groups for a long time and still are it;s time to go after the puppet master and not just the puppet's.

Of course you dont care, because you would be quite happy to see Israel destroyed.

wax24 wrote:

I was on Unit 400 here in the psych hosp. (this is a few years back now) and i was wearing my Who's On First? long sleeve t-shirt. A patient passed by and said, in a voice filled with malice, "but, are you a pitcher or a catcher?"

I never wore that shirt to work again.

hahah... oh wow..
reminds me of a mate that went to see U2 in Adelaide in 1993 wearing a t-shirt that said "kill bono" with a picture of a handgun. Soooo nearly got his head beaten in by U2 peaceniks.

sypkan wrote:

gs-co wrote:

A gentle reminder about the cause of today's situation:

US trade deficit:

US government debt relative to GDP:

Both are predominately caused by the abandonment of financial and monetary prudence and responsibility post GFC by the US Federal Reserve (central bank):

M0 money supply

M1 money supply

It's very simple. The US needs to return these and other indicators back to pre-GFC levels.

Ray Dalio's take:

Ray Dalio wrote:

The monetary/economic order is breaking down because there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this unsustainably large debt. The debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a) debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on a too much debt because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies. There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. For example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can't trust that the other major players won't cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). This is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly led to the same sorts of problems we're seeing now. So, the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy. In an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances, which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink one way or another. Also, it should be obvious that the U.S. government debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to is unsustainable. (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.) Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at another time.

good onya gs...

everyone... EVERYONE... should watch dalio's video to understand what's happening...

it doesn't mean you have to agree with trump

it doesn't mean much at all...

but the historical context, and cycles, are most beneficial to understand where we are at now

it's all about debt, booms, busts, tech, and empires...

trump is actually trying to avert a disaster and / or war... like I said, you don't have to agree with his methods... but this vid gives a great foundation to what he's addressing...

Will watch latter, im betting this is like the video i shared the other day as was around things Ray Dalio had talked about and mar a lago accord etc

sypkan I watched that video when gsco first put it up (2021 according to our resident archivist) and was amazed at the level of debt so I fully understand why they're trying this out, but geez do they have to be such arseholes about it?

Also you'd think that they'd let the benefits (whatever they might be) flow through the system before adding another $4 trillion to the debt as well pulling out the same amount in lost tax revenue.

@flollo re: the 'zero for zero' wasn't the idea to replace income tax revenue with the tariffs which if so means everyone gets hit with at least 10% regardless of how much they grovel

""Of course you dont care, because you would be quite happy to see Israel destroyed.""

On ya mate....
U really are a specimen ey.
Keep cheering on the genocide...

Travel warning for the USA
Well respected Australian MMA coach, Shubolic gets arrested on arrival in the US for a visa error,
Placed in a violent federal US prison for 24 hours, then deported back to Australia .

basesix wrote:

cheers @sypkan, I just had a fun read from when @Cockee dared SNers to shoot for 200 pages on this thread. Classic time, 2021 (page 109), all the stars are there, blindboy, viclocal, blowin, tubeshooter, sypkan, soggydog, indodreaming, velocityjohnno, etarip.. somewhere in the middle @gsco first recommended Ray Dalio..

https://www.swellnet.com/comment/778088

haha, the good old days.
Sadly, I wasn't really one of the stars, more of an extra.
Blindboys critique and review of my performance wasn't flattering either.

"Random Aussue (sic) bloke on the internet disagrees with carefully considered commentary by professional US political journalist about US politics. Yawn."

I was devastated, obviously.
Any hoot, onwards and upwards.

Ground hog day , all over again !
You still haven’t convinced each other after all this time.!

Fkn LOL

Oh yes , the power and the
indiscriminate cruelty and destruction.

Fliplid wrote:

sypkan I watched that video when gsco first put it up (2021 according to our resident archivist) and was amazed at the level of debt so I fully understand why they're trying this out, but geez do they have to be such arseholes about it?

Also you'd think that they'd let the benefits (whatever they might be) flow through the system before adding another $4 trillion to the debt as well pulling out the same amount in lost tax revenue.

@flollo re: the 'zero for zero' wasn't the idea to replace income tax revenue with the tariffs which if so means everyone gets hit with at least 10% regardless of how much they grovel

I also recommend Dalio’s Principles. It’s the book he published before this macro one. And yes, the aim is to raise revenue to allow for tax cuts. Why else would you apply 10% to everything that comes into the country? It’s a revenue grab. But there is a lack of clarity on what tax cuts are coming and when. And that needs to go through congress while Trump can use emergency powers (which are bullshit) to implement tariffs.

Confusion wrote:

Ground hog day , all over again !

You still haven’t convinced each other after all this time.!

Of what exactly?
That exchange had nothing to do with Trump.

またあ

tubeshooter wrote:

Confusion wrote:

Ground hog day , all over again !

You still haven’t convinced each other after all this time.!

Of what exactly?

That exchange had nothing to do with Trump.

It was the same person A versus person B
With the same conviction
Doesn’t matter what the subject is
Quite funny how important it wasn’t / isn’t.
Are you going to have a retrospective discussion?

Confusion wrote:

tubeshooter wrote:

Confusion wrote:

Ground hog day , all over again !

You still haven’t convinced each other after all this time.!

Of what exactly?

That exchange had nothing to do with Trump.

It was the same person A versus person B

With the same conviction

Doesn’t matter what the subject is

Quite funny how important it wasn’t / isn’t.

Are you going to have a retrospective discussion?

Same as it ever was.
And you think you can change hearts and minds here?
Good luck with that.

tubeshooter wrote:

Confusion wrote:

tubeshooter wrote:

Confusion wrote:

Ground hog day , all over again !

You still haven’t convinced each other after all this time.!

Of what exactly?

That exchange had nothing to do with Trump.

It was the same person A versus person B

With the same conviction

Doesn’t matter what the subject is

Quite funny how important it wasn’t / isn’t.

Are you going to have a retrospective discussion?

Same as it ever was.

And you think you can change hearts and minds here?

Good luck with that.

I know it puts it in perspective all these
years later doesn’t it ?
No wonder you weren’t a star boy!

Clever Musk and Trump and doge sack IRS staff and now collected revenue will be 500billion less. That’s a 10% drop.

Smart aye.

There is very little chance of bringing manufacturing back.
Not going to happen. It doesn’t take much thinking to know it won’t happen and now more reality is getting into the public domain.

Musk ramping up crying like a spoilt whiny little bitch…now playing victim and wanting it all his way.
He along with his shitty made in America piece of shit vehicle is a joke. The cyber truck is a disaster and an example of current USA workmanship…a great example why manufacturing should not be left to those that can.

I found this an incredible read and makes a lot of sense.

https://t.co/b9K9yNW5Dq

— molson 🧠⚙️ (@Molson_Hart) April 6, 2025

makes sense Craig ^

I could somewhat understand if this manufacturing push came with massive infrastructure and immigration boost. But that won’t happen, there is neither one of those. The US is an immigrant country, who do you think worked in those factories over many decades?

Excellent read Craig, thanks. This extract below, replace America with Australia and the same rings true, unfortunately.

"In China, there are no people who are too fat to work. The workers don’t storm off midshift, never to return to their job. You don’t have people who insist on being paid in cash so that they can keep their disability payments, while they do acrobatics on the factory floor that the non-disabled workers cannot do.

Chinese workers much less likely to physically attack each other and their manager. They don’t take 30 minute bathroom breaks on company time. They don’t often quit because their out-of-state mother of their children discovered their new job and now receives 60% of their wages as child support. They don’t disappear because they’ve gone on meth benders. And they don’t fall asleep on a box midshift because their pay from yesterday got converted into pills.

And they can do their times tables. To manufacture, you need to be able to consistently and accurately multiply 7 times 9 and read in English, and a disturbingly large portion of the American workforce cannot do that.

Chinese workers work longer hours more happily and they’re physically faster with their hands; they can do things that American labor can’t. It’s years of accumulated skill, but it’s also a culture that is oriented around hard work and education that the United States no longer has."

flollo wrote:

Also, I am seeing some casual comments here that no one knows what will happen and what will work, let it play out etc... Let me make something clear, I am 100% certain about some things.

First, companies cannot just pass full tariff rate to the consumer. If there is a 50% tariff (literally overnight) you can't just pass 50% cost increase to the customer. No one would be buying your product. So you will have to increase a certain % and absorb the rest.

Second, when you do that you are doing it at the expense of your own margin. For example, Apple will be hit hard by tariffs. What do they do, sell iPhones for $4,000+? Of course not. So they will take a hit.

Thirdly, what happens when your profit margin drops? Earnings compared to share price blow out, resulting in lower share prices as P/Es won't hold. And more importantly, you will delay future capital investment as paybacks don't look attractive. Going back to Apple's example, their cash reserves are estimated at $166b USD. Why are they not investing that cash? Do you think they will invest more of it with tariffs? Policy's role is creation of favourable conditions for cash to be deployed. Tariffs are opposite of that. I am saying this as someone with direct experience in writing white papers for business investments, asking executives to invest millions into chosen projects. And I can tell you right now that most projects that don't meet desired payback periods get immediately rejected. Tariffs = lower margins = longer payback periods = lower business investment.

Fourth and final, if Trump is to succeed in bringing manufacturing investment into the US who exactly will do all these jobs? Unemployment is low at 4% meaning there are no available resources. I could somewhat understand this plan in conjunction with mass migration of resources into the country. But they're doing the opposite, kicking everyone out. I watched Dave Chappele's hilarious stand up clip saying 'I like Nikes but I don't want to make them' and 'Leave Chinese jobs in China, we don't want to do them'. Of course, this is comedy but it's true. There are no available resources in the country to implement Trump's goals.

Excellent points. I'm an importer and wholesale distributor. My margins already couldn't go any lower, so if the product costs go up by 80% because the tariffs went up by 104%....you can finish the sentence.

Second, in regards to "American manufacturing": The unemployment rate, as you mentioned has been low and steady for a long time. We have been at or near full employment for a really long time. The Trump supporters, for the most part, want to return to some mythical time when every man had a great factory job, post WWII. Do you know why we were dominant in manufacturing at that time? Because most of the rest of the world's manufacturing capacity was blown to smithereens. That dominance couldn't last forever.
So back to the "Time to bring manufacturing back!" thing. New, state of the art factories will feature heavily in robotics. This idea of assembly lines staffed by well-paid workers is silly at best. Yes, each country should have manufacturing capabilities, especially for essential items. All in all though, Trump's strategy is farcical. Neither he, nor any of the people around him, have any real interest in the working man.
Elon Musk called Peter Navarro ( a top Trump trade advisor) a "moron" today lol. When these guys start turning on each other it's going to get ugly.

Main problem with the article is it claims the tariffs are to bring back manufacturing.

There’s 3 things I’d say:
1. There’s a whole host of other initiatives alongside tariffs designed to bring back manufacturing to the US.
2. Manufacturing is not the only industry they are trying to bring back. Where I work has just moved its entire operation and most of its workforce back to the US, and has made a significant investment in doing so, and we’ve been met with open arms.
3. The tariffs are not solely or even predominantly aimed at bringing back manufacturing, but also have other aims (see below).

On the point of the US supposedly kicking everyone out of the country, rendering it with no workforce, well that’s complete nonsense. They are kicking out illegal migrant criminals. Along with ourselves, I know a lot of companies moving their operations to the US, across an interesting variety of sectors, and making huge investments in doing so, and we and they have been very welcomed.

Regarding point 3 above, the tariffs are also designed to:
- Generate govt income in order to, alongside the cost cutting of Doge, reduce down the unsustainable massive govt debt that is crippling the country.
- Reduce the tax burden on the everyday American worker by generating more govt revenue via tariffs. Part of this is also a nostalgia of late 19th century libertarianism when nearly the sole source of US govt income was tariffs, there was no income taxes, and there was no Federal Reserve (central bank), and yet the US flourished.
- Encourage countries to engage in fair and equal trade practices with the US. And the point here is it’s not just about other countries reducing tariffs. Unfair trade practices include hidden tariffs, government subsidies, cheap including slave labour, maintaining an artificially low exchange rate, little to no separation between govt and business, direct trade controls, etc.

The US is in an unsustainable debt situation and trading arrangement system and neither can continue on, like Dalio is saying. The US can’t continue to bleed money.

Both sides of US politics are equally complicit in its cause and in ignoring the problem. But it can’t be avoided any longer.

I think there’s only 2 reasons one could be against what the Republicans are trying to achieve in rebalancing the US’s books and trading arrangements:
1. You support the objectives but don’t agree with Trump and Musk’ wild, cavalier ways.
2. You don’t support the objectives but would rather see the financial and civilisational collapse of the West starting with the US.

I still reckon they put all their eggs in the Elon AI basket hoping that the returning workforce would be less humans, more cost effective...watch the profits roll in. Doesn't seem to be going to plan at all. Masterplan might just be to hide out and play golf for the rest of his term.

Craig wrote:

I found this an incredible read and makes a lot of sense.

https://x.com/molson_hart/status/1908940952908996984?s=46

Thanks for the link. Took the time to read it, and while there might be a point or two to quibble with, the arguments were really well thought out.

Interesting article @craig from one clear and well-articulated perspective (the michael jordan analogy made me laugh). 'Gradual tariffs' makes immense sense, so that businesses can gear up their needs with confident investors. The 'put it in law' thing too. Who's donald trump in 4 years? Good to hear @gs-co's measured counter.

@mick66, that 'mythical time' thing is big. What's that word..? I'll look it up.. yup 'anemoia' :

{The feeling of nostalgia for a time that never existed, or "anemoia," is a yearning for a past that one has never experienced, potentially linked to dissatisfaction with the present or a desire for a perceived lost social cohesion.}

In terms of real economic nostalgia, WWII golden era is obvious, as @mick says, and so is 'the late C19th'...

in 1890 there was 62 million people in the US, and resources were being sacked, raped and plundered.. fish, minerals, coal, oil... i.e. the astonishing Rapid Timber Depletion from the Great Lakes to the South East, prior to National Parks, and the Forest Reserves Act in 1891.. and there was immigration up the wazoo! Willing hard-workers pouring in and rolling up their sleeves.. gold rushes didn't hurt the broader economy either by opening up frontiers and stimulating infrastructure and industry..

Here's an excerpt of an article in a C19th Californian magazine when American Buffalo/Bison had been hunted down to a mere 100 animals.. (here is a large pile of bison skulls we prepared earlier):

"Thirty years ago millions of the great unwieldy animals existed on this continent. Innumerable droves roamed, comparatively undisturbed and unmolested ... Many thousands have been ruthlessly and shamefully slain every season for past twenty years or more by white hunters and tourists merely for their robes, and in sheer wanton sport, and their huge carcasses left to fester and rot, and their bleached skeletons to strew the deserts and lonely plains. (Overland and Out West Monthly, Nov 1889)

go senator and businessman mark warner, haha! Going into bat for the Aussies! the USA doesn't have enough beef for themselves, why would they want to export to us anyway? (only 1min long)

(70 years old, has held his seat for 16 years, after being Virginian governor for a few years. Dude looks good, must be doing something right.)

gs-co wrote:

Main problem with the article is it claims the tariffs are to bring back manufacturing.

There’s 3 things I’d say:

1. There’s a whole host of other initiatives alongside tariffs designed to bring back manufacturing to the US.

2. Manufacturing is not the only industry they are trying to bring back. Where I work has just moved its entire operation and most of its workforce back to the US, and has made a significant investment in doing so, and we’ve been met with open arms.

3. The tariffs are not solely or even predominantly aimed at bringing back manufacturing, but also have other aims (see below).

On the point of the US supposedly kicking everyone out of the country, rendering it with no workforce, well that’s complete nonsense. They are kicking out illegal migrant criminals. Along with ourselves, I know a lot of companies moving their operations to the US, across an interesting variety of sectors, and making huge investments in doing so, and we and they have been very welcomed.

Regarding point 3 above, the tariffs are also designed to:

- Generate govt income in order to, alongside the cost cutting of Doge, reduce down the unsustainable massive govt debt that is crippling the country.

- Reduce the tax burden on the everyday American worker by generating more govt revenue via tariffs. Part of this is also a nostalgia of late 19th century libertarianism when nearly the sole source of US govt income was tariffs, there was no income taxes, and there was no Federal Reserve (central bank), and yet the US flourished.

- Encourage countries to engage in fair and equal trade practices with the US. And the point here is it’s not just about other countries reducing tariffs. Unfair trade practices include hidden tariffs, government subsidies, cheap including slave labour, maintaining an artificially low exchange rate, little to no separation between govt and business, direct trade controls, etc.

The US is in an unsustainable debt situation and trading arrangement system and neither can continue on, like Dalio is saying. The US can’t continue to bleed money.

Both sides of US politics are equally complicit in its cause and in ignoring the problem. But it can’t be avoided any longer.

I think there’s only 2 reasons one could be against what the Republicans are trying to achieve in rebalancing the US’s books and trading arrangements:

1. You support the objectives but don’t agree with Trump and Musk’ wild, cavalier ways.

2. You don’t support the objectives but would rather see the financial and civilisational collapse of the West starting with the US.

How do you feel about legal/ illegal kidnappings of innocent civilians, and sending them to
Concentration camps in El Salvador,
without due process,
And refusing to bring them back when court ordered.
Or isn’t that important , unless you’re the one being legally/ illegally kidnapped.
Be careful what you wish for .!

Good article Craig...

Americans (and Australians) have lived beyond their means relying on debt to finance their living standards.
They have blown out the credit card and are now blaming the shops they bought the shit from for their dilemma.

Simplistic maybe? But isn't that the root of the problem.

Blaming China for making stuff financed by US corporations is a bit rich ya?

Confusion wrote:

gs-co wrote:

Main problem with the article is it claims the tariffs are to bring back manufacturing.

There’s 3 things I’d say:

1. There’s a whole host of other initiatives alongside tariffs designed to bring back manufacturing to the US.

2. Manufacturing is not the only industry they are trying to bring back. Where I work has just moved its entire operation and most of its workforce back to the US, and has made a significant investment in doing so, and we’ve been met with open arms.

3. The tariffs are not solely or even predominantly aimed at bringing back manufacturing, but also have other aims (see below).

On the point of the US supposedly kicking everyone out of the country, rendering it with no workforce, well that’s complete nonsense. They are kicking out illegal migrant criminals. Along with ourselves, I know a lot of companies moving their operations to the US, across an interesting variety of sectors, and making huge investments in doing so, and we and they have been very welcomed.

Regarding point 3 above, the tariffs are also designed to:

- Generate govt income in order to, alongside the cost cutting of Doge, reduce down the unsustainable massive govt debt that is crippling the country.

- Reduce the tax burden on the everyday American worker by generating more govt revenue via tariffs. Part of this is also a nostalgia of late 19th century libertarianism when nearly the sole source of US govt income was tariffs, there was no income taxes, and there was no Federal Reserve (central bank), and yet the US flourished.

- Encourage countries to engage in fair and equal trade practices with the US. And the point here is it’s not just about other countries reducing tariffs. Unfair trade practices include hidden tariffs, government subsidies, cheap including slave labour, maintaining an artificially low exchange rate, little to no separation between govt and business, direct trade controls, etc.

The US is in an unsustainable debt situation and trading arrangement system and neither can continue on, like Dalio is saying. The US can’t continue to bleed money.

Both sides of US politics are equally complicit in its cause and in ignoring the problem. But it can’t be avoided any longer.

I think there’s only 2 reasons one could be against what the Republicans are trying to achieve in rebalancing the US’s books and trading arrangements:

1. You support the objectives but don’t agree with Trump and Musk’ wild, cavalier ways.

2. You don’t support the objectives but would rather see the financial and civilisational collapse of the West starting with the US.

How do you feel about legal/ illegal kidnappings of innocent civilians, and sending them to

Concentration camps in El Salvador,

without due process,

And refusing to bring them back when court ordered.

Or isn’t that important , unless you’re the one being legally/ illegally kidnapped.

Be careful what you wish for .!

That's just upholding western civilisation...

@ Andy Mac says “that’s just upholding western civilisation “
Actually state sanctioned illegal kidnappings of civilians, and deportation without due process is actually upholding, unlawful authoritarianism.
Where the king does anything he wants to,
Opposite to western civilisation.
“ The limits of Tyrants,are prescribed by the endurance of those they seek to oppress “
Frederick Douglas

Confusion wrote:

@ Andy Mac says “that’s just upholding western civilisation “

Actually state sanctioned illegal kidnappings of civilians, and deportation without due process is actually upholding, unlawful authoritarianism.

Where the king does anything he wants to,

Opposite to western civilisation.

Civilians means they were in fact Citizens. Do you have evidence they those deported were in fact American Citizens?

fitzroy-21 wrote:

Confusion wrote:

@ Andy Mac says “that’s just upholding western civilisation “

Actually state sanctioned illegal kidnappings of civilians, and deportation without due process is actually upholding, unlawful authoritarianism.

Where the king does anything he wants to,

Opposite to western civilisation.

Civilians means they were in fact Citizens. Do you have evidence they those deported were in fact American Citizens?

More to the point, do you have any evidence that they were all illegal gang members,
No because they were sent away without due process, which is why they were ordered to be brought back by the courts ,
It’s called a legal system without which you would be in trouble,
Even non American citizens are entitled to due process in The US , and deportations to El Salvador are legally questioned
Why what is Fox saying on this.

Confusion wrote:

@ Andy Mac says “that’s just upholding western civilisation “

Actually state sanctioned illegal kidnappings of civilians, and deportation without due process is actually upholding, unlawful authoritarianism.

Where the king does anything he wants to,

Opposite to western civilisation.

“ The limits of Tyrants,are prescribed by the endurance of those they seek to oppress “

Frederick Douglas

I was being glib.....

https://www.facebook.com/reel/9854406537912938?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

andy-mac wrote:

Confusion wrote:

@ Andy Mac says “that’s just upholding western civilisation “

Actually state sanctioned illegal kidnappings of civilians, and deportation without due process is actually upholding, unlawful authoritarianism.

Where the king does anything he wants to,

Opposite to western civilisation.

“ The limits of Tyrants,are prescribed by the endurance of those they seek to oppress “

Frederick Douglas

I was being glib.....

https://www.facebook.com/reel/9854406537912938?mibextid=rS40aB7S9Ucbxw6v

Yes I thought that was possible, but thought I’d better expand on the issue anyway.

“Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that the only solution to stop Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program is military intervention”

Emphasis on ‘only solution’ & ‘military intervention’
- nothing quite like upholding western civilisation (& values… & morals)

https://apnews.com/article/trump-netanyahu-tariffs-iran-gaza-9aaf17d50b…

tearymasseuse wrote:

“Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed that the only solution to stop Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program is military intervention”

Emphasis on ‘only solution’ & ‘military intervention’

- nothing quite like upholding western civilisation (& values… & morals)

https://apnews.com/article/trump-netanyahu-tariffs-iran-gaza-9aaf17d50b…

That war criminal has been saying that for 25 years...

Here's an idea.

Iran and Israel must open up all their nuclear facilities to an international inspection body.
Any nuclear weapons program in either country must have their capabilities dismantled immediately.

No ifs not buts.

Reality is that while Israel has nuclear weapons and is always threatening war with Iran, whilst now killing tens of thousands of civilians in a mass industrial slaughter, it is in Iran's interest to develop nuclear capabilities for their own protection.

Look at Syria, Libya, Iraq and North Korea and tell me what is different between these countries.

Yep.
The track record speaks for itself

- & decades later this bloke still occupies the White House.

Nobody wants to see the financial and civilisational collapse of the west, yet the main antagonist and one of the masters of its demise is still calling the shots… even with proven evidence of corruption, manipulated false guarantees of peace and the fresh stench of being guilty of war crimes - bibi remains steadfast with his self serving destructive influence and deception.

But it’s chinaaaaaa ……and iwan …….and wussia

- $moke & mirror$

Then. And now.

Trump finally found his trolling match

“To bring them to a state of panic that everything is collapsing”

- when principles and strategies align to suit ;)

“America is a thing that can be easily moved”

Then. And now.

House of Trump starting to show stress. It’s very predictable.

flollo wrote:

Trump finally found his trolling match

^ Hahaha. Gold.